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US dollar market update
Outlook
The US dollar remains on the back foot as political risk and policy expectations weigh on it. Trump’s Iran threat and the risk of a US government shutdown have traders pricing in additional USD risk premia, while a softer domestic data pulse (jobs claims) reinforces a shifting outlook for US rates. A potential escalation in Iran or a Trump-led disclosure on the next Federal Reserve Chair could add near-term volatility to USD pairs. Overall, the dollar is seen trading with a bias toward softer levels against the Euro and sterling, but with flashes of volatility tied to geopolitical headlines and Fed communications.
Key drivers
- Political and policy risk: Trump’s Iran stance and the threat of a government shutdown raise risk premiums in USD; larger-than-expected US jobless claims add to domestic policy uncertainty.
- Fund flows and risk sentiment: A “Sell America” trend has investors retreating from USD assets, equities, and Treasuries amid geopolitical and trade-policy uncertainties.
- Monetary policy path: Markets broadly expect two Fed rate cuts in 2026 (March and June), taking the policy rate toward around 3.25% later this year, a view highlighted by market strategists.
- Geopolitical tensions: Recent US actions in Venezuela and Canada-related trade tensions contribute to market volatility and USD bid-asks in the short run.
- USD momentum and commodity link: The USD index has shed roughly 10.4% since January 2025, reflecting a softer dollar environment amid fiscal deficits and more permissive monetary policy; oil resilience adds a dimension to risk sentiment and inflation expectations.
- Price action in major pairs: EURUSD at 0.8436 (about 1.5% below its 3-month average of 0.8567), GBPUSD at 0.7303 (about 2.5% below its 3-month average of 0.7487), USDJPY at 154.7 (about 0.8% below its 3-month average of 156). Oil markets show WTI around 69.09, a 90-day high, about 9.4% above its 3-month average of 63.16, with a 59.04–69.09 range.
BestExchangeRates.com keeps you up-to-date on US dollar forecasts by collating the views of reliable FX forecasters and economists together with recent USD price trends. This analysis covers a wide range of factors including economic indicators, geopolitical events, central bank policies, and technical analysis to provide a thorough and current outlook on currency trends.
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