Philippine peso (PHP) Exchange Rates & Currency Deals

Bias USD/PHP sits near the upper end of its 3-month range and above the 90-day avg. Fed easing seen in 2026; BSP easing later may narrow the gap. Watch US payrolls and oil: strong data boosts the dollar, softer data helps the peso. Key drivers - Rate gap: markets expect the Fed to ease gradually in 2026, while the BSP is seen keeping a policy stance that could allow later easing, narrowing the gap as inflation trends allow. - Risk/commodities: oil has shown volatility; a firmer oil market often ties risk appetite to dollar strength, while a softer trend can support PHP, particularly when global growth slows. - One macro factor: upcoming US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data will shape Fed timing and dollar demand for traders. Range likely to drift within the last three months' range, hovering near the upper end and testing the high if dollar strength persists in coming weeks. What could change it - Upside risk: stronger US payrolls or a hawkish Fed signal that delays rate cuts and sustains dollar demand. - Downside risk: softer US data or clearer signs of domestic BSP easing and improving inflows for the peso, and domestic data surprises