AED/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is near its 90-day average and lacks a clear directional driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The UAE Dirham's stability is maintained through its peg to the US Dollar, similar to the Qatari Riyal, ensuring a consistent baseline for both currencies.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices have surged to near 90-day highs, which could provide indirect support to the QAR due to Qatar's reliance on oil revenue, but fluctuations create uncertainty.
- One macro factor: Qatar's GDP growth is projected to improve significantly in 2026, supporting a stronger economic outlook for the Qatari Riyal.
Range: The AED/QAR pair is likely to hold within its recent trading range as both currencies exhibit stability.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A sustained increase in global oil prices could lead to a stronger QAR and potentially push the AED/QAR rate higher.
- Downside risk: Any significant weakening in economic indicators, particularly in the UAE, could negatively impact the AED against the QAR.