The recent forecast for the AED to QAR exchange rate has presented a mixed outlook influenced by both geopolitical and economic factors. Currently, the exchange rate is hovering around 0.9910, at 60-day lows, which is consistent with its three-month average. Over the past few months, it has maintained a stable trading range of approximately 0.5%, fluctuating between 0.9906 and 0.9956. Analysts attribute this stability to broader market conditions as well as the current performance of oil prices, which have a direct impact on the Qatari Riyal.
Geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly the recent military strikes by Israel on Iran, have added volatility to the markets, influencing the price of Brent Crude oil, which is currently trading at 70.36 USD. This represents a notable increase of 4.9% above its three-month average of 67.09, leaving oil prices within a significant range of 31.1%, swinging from 60.14 to 78.85. Such dynamics are crucial for the QAR, as oil revenues fundamentally support Qatar's economy.
Furthermore, insights from the Arab Monetary Fund projected a robust growth rate of 6.2% for the UAE economy in 2025, bolstered by sectors such as tourism and international trade. However, the recent slowdown in the UAE's non-oil sector growth raises concerns regarding the country’s ongoing diversification efforts.
Additionally, the UAE's pursuit of a trade agreement with the U.S. to address tariffs on steel and aluminum exports may further influence economic interactions and currency dynamics. The commitment to investing in technology and AI aims to strengthen economic resilience, yet challenges persist in the diversification of the economy.
The interplay of these geopolitical developments, economic forecasts, and market movements indicates cautious optimism for the AED against the QAR. Individuals and businesses engaging in international transactions should remain vigilant and informed about these factors, as currency fluctuations can significantly impact costs when converting currencies.