AUD/CHF Outlook:
The AUD/CHF rate is slightly positive and likely to move sideways as it trades above the three-month average and remains within its mid-range. However, the lack of clear drivers may limit significant movements.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Australia’s interest rate policy is cautiously supportive, contrasting with the Swiss National Bank's potential easing, which continues to influence the CHF’s strength.
• Risk/commodities: The ongoing demand for Australian commodities, particularly driven by China's economic recovery and the strength of iron ore prices, supports the AUD.
• One macro factor: Geopolitical tensions impacting global trade indirectly affect both currencies, but Australia’s favorable commodity position provides some resilience for the AUD.
Range:
The AUD/CHF is expected to hold its current levels but could drift toward the extremes of its recent trading range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strengthening global risk appetite for commodities could boost the AUD significantly.
• Downside risk: Any new interventions by the Swiss National Bank to weaken the CHF would heighten pressure on the AUD/CHF.
