AUD/CHF Outlook:
The AUD/CHF is slightly positive, trading above its recent average and showing strength, yet lacks a clear driver for further gains at this point.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia recently raised rates, contrasting with the Swiss National Bank's ongoing low rates to stimulate growth.
• Risk/commodities: High global commodity prices continue to support the Australian dollar, benefiting from steady demand for exports.
• One macro factor: China's manufacturing sector showed signs of expansion, positively impacting Australia's export outlook.
Range:
Expect AUD/CHF to hold fairly steady within the recent 3-month range, experiencing minor fluctuations without significant breakthroughs.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A broader improvement in global risk appetite could generate stronger demand for the Australian dollar.
• Downside risk: Escalating geopolitical tensions may push investors towards safe-haven currencies, weakening the AUD.