AUD/CHF Outlook:
The AUD/CHF exchange rate is slightly positive but likely to move sideways, trading above its 90-day average and within the mid-range of its recent movements. This reflects a lack of clear drivers pushing for a strong trend.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia's higher interest rates could support the AUD compared to the Swiss National Bank's cautious stance, which limits CHF strengths.
• Risk/commodities: The ongoing geopolitical tensions negatively impact AUD as it typically declines during risk-off events, while the CHF benefits as a safe-haven currency.
• One macro factor: Australia's upcoming trade figures might reveal a surplus which could support the AUD, but uncertainties remain due to global risks.
Range:
Expect the AUD/CHF to hold within the current range as geopolitical tensions create mixed signals.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant easing of geopolitical tensions could boost the AUD.
• Downside risk: Increased conflict or negative global economic indicators might further pressure the AUD.