Bias: AUD/CHF is bullish-to-range-bound, trading above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Australia’s central bank has signalled possible rate hikes in 2026, while the SNB remains at zero with the danger of negative rates if the franc stays strong.
• Risk/commodities: Chinese inflation disappointment weighs on demand for Australian exports, softening the AUD even as global commodity prices trade modestly.
• Macro factor: Australia’s upcoming CPI data release could shift rate expectations and tilt the pair.
Range: Expect AUD/CHF to drift within the recent range, with a tendency to test the upper end but not break.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: RBA confirms a firmer rate path for 2026.
• Downside risk: SNB resumes a tighter policy or the franc strengthens on safe-haven flows.