AUD/CHF Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia's recent interest rate hike points to a more aggressive approach compared to the Swiss National Bank, which may consider negative rates to combat a strong franc.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices and demand for Australian commodities like iron ore continue to support the AUD's strength, aiding export performance.
• One macro factor: Australia's inflation surpassed the central bank's target, raising speculation for further rate hikes, which supports a stronger AUD.
Range:
The AUD/CHF is likely to drift within its recent range as it trades above average levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sustained rise in global commodity prices could further boost the AUD.
• Downside risk: A shift towards negative interest rates by the SNB could strengthen the CHF against the AUD.
