AUD/CHF Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average and near the upper part of its three-month range without a strong driver pushing it higher.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia is signaling potential interest rate hikes, while the Swiss National Bank maintains a 0% policy rate, creating an attractive yield for the AUD.
• Risk/commodities: The price of key Australian exports remains a significant factor; stable or rising commodity prices could support the AUD against the CHF.
• One macro factor: Australia's inflation figures are anticipated to rise, which could reinforce expectations for RBA interest rate increases, providing additional support for the AUD.
Range: The AUD/CHF is likely to hold within its recent range, with potential to test extremes driven by upcoming economic data releases.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger than expected report on Australian inflation could boost the AUD further.
• Downside risk: Continued global uncertainties or worsening economic conditions in China may weigh on demand for Australian exports, impacting the AUD negatively.
