Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, as AUD/SGD sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA has signalled possible hikes in 2026 while MAS has eased modestly, widening the policy gap in favour of AUD and keeping carry appeal intact.
- Risk/commodities: Oil has been volatile with a recent tilt higher, supporting the Aussie’s commodity-link, while SGD tracks MAS’s stance more closely.
- One macro factor: China’s uneven rebound continues to weigh on demand for Australian commodities, which caps AUD strength even as global markets trend higher.
Range: Expect AUD/SGD to hold near the upper end of the 3-month range, with a mild drift higher as traders rotate into risk assets, but not a breakout.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Strong Australian inflation or jobs data that reinforces rate-hike expectations and keeps the RBA in focus.
- Downside risk: A sharper slowdown in China or a renewed pullback in commodities, or a softer MAS stance, could push SGD stronger.