The Australian dollar (AUD) has recently exhibited a mixed performance, influenced largely by risk sentiment and key economic indicators. As of late November and early December 2025, AUD is trading at 7-day lows around 0.8548 SGD, just slightly above its three-month average of 0.8492 SGD. This reflects a stable trading range, suggesting limited volatility in the short term as the currency trades within 2.9% of its recent highs and lows.
Recent economic data points suggest a positive trajectory for the AUD. Analysts have highlighted a significant surge in household spending, reporting a 1.3% increase in October 2025, the largest monthly rise in nearly two years. This uptick is seen as a catalyst for heightened expectations of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Alongside this, GDP growth accelerated to 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, representing the fastest growth in two years, further solidifying a bullish outlook on the Australian economy. However, persistent inflation concerns, with October’s consumer inflation climbing to 3.8%, have prompted markets to reassess the likelihood of rate cuts by the RBA.
The relationship between Australia and China remains critical for the AUD. Given that Australia’s economy relies heavily on its exports to China, any positive economic data from China could bolster the AUD. Conversely, any signs of economic slowdown in China could weaken the currency, thereby influencing its performance against the Singapore dollar (SGD).
In Singapore, the SGD has experienced its own challenges, particularly following adjustments to monetary policy by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). The central bank eased policy by reducing the slope of its exchange rate policy band in January 2025 to mitigate economic risks. However, despite these challenges, Singapore's economy has shown resilience, growing by 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, surpassing market expectations.
Market observers note that the interplay between the AUD and SGD is shaped not only by domestic economic developments but also by broader global risks. In particular, the ongoing U.S. trade tensions and other geopolitical factors could exert pressure on both currencies. Analysts suggest that maintaining a close watch on upcoming economic data releases from both Australia and Singapore will be crucial for understanding future movements in the AUD/SGD exchange rate.
Overall, while the AUD has shown stable performance in the near term, its future trajectory will depend significantly on both domestic economic indicators and external economic relationships, particularly with China. As circumstances evolve, traders and businesses engaged in cross-border transactions should consider these factors in order to optimize their currency exchange strategies.
