The AUD to TRY exchange rate is currently bullish, trading near recent highs. A few key drivers of this trend include the interest rate differential, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates, contrasting with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which may cut rates further. The ongoing inflationary pressure in Turkey is another significant factor, with the CBRT targeting 16% inflation despite upward price trends.
Currently, the AUD is trading at about 90-day highs, suggesting an upward band is likely to hold, with movement expected between these recent levels and previous averages.
An upside risk is the potential for greater foreign investment to flow into Australia if global sentiment improves further. Conversely, a downside risk includes any swift changes in Turkey's economic outlook or international pressures that could lead to a rapid depreciation of the Turkish lira, impacting the AUD/TRY exchange rate.