AUD/TRY Outlook:
The AUD/TRY is likely to increase as it is currently trading significantly above its recent average and near recent highs due to strong support from Australian monetary policy.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia recently raised interest rates, while Turkey's central bank has cut rates, widening the gap between the two currencies.
• Risk/commodities: Global oil prices are relatively stable, which helps support AUD, benefiting from Australia's commodity exports.
• Macro factor: Australia’s inflation figures highlight a robust economy, raising expectations of further rate hikes, which typically strengthens the AUD.
Range:
Expect AUD/TRY to drift higher within its recent trading range, potentially testing the upper extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Further unexpected economic improvements in Australia could lead to additional rate hikes.
• Downside risk: A significant deterioration in external economic conditions or a sharp increase in Turkish inflation could weaken the TRY further.