AUD/TRY Outlook:
The AUD/TRY is likely to increase, currently trading significantly above its 90-day average and near recent highs. This rise is driven by strong factors supporting the Australian dollar.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia's recent interest rate hike improves the appeal of the AUD compared to the high rates maintained by Turkey.
- Risk/commodities: Rising commodity prices, especially gold, continue to benefit the AUD by bolstering demand for Australian exports.
- Macro factor: Increased inflation in Australia suggests more rate hikes may be on the way, keeping the AUD robust.
Range:
Expect the AUD/TRY to test the higher end of its recent range, supported by ongoing Australian economic strength.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A further significant increase in commodity prices could drive the AUD even higher.
- Downside risk: Any signs of political instability or unexpected shifts in Turkish economic policy could weaken the TRY, potentially reversing the current trend.