The recent analysis indicates that the Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing pressure as geopolitical tensions between Japan and China persist. This has contributed to a broader risk-off sentiment in the market, leading to notable losses against various currencies. Despite these challenges, Australia's inflation rate is anticipated to rise slightly to 3.6% in October, potentially bolstering expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Key factors influencing the AUD include the fluctuating prices of commodities, interest rates set by the RBA, and trade balance dynamics, notably with China, which is Australia's largest trading partner. As a commodity currency, the strength of the AUD is closely linked to the demand for Australian exports, particularly iron ore and coal. The current market sentiment points towards a mixed outlook; while higher commodity prices typically support the AUD, lower investor confidence can lead to depreciation.
Market experts noted that the AUD has recently traded at 7-day highs around 20.33 TWD, which is approximately 1.2% above its three-month average of 20.07 TWD. This stability signifies a trading range that has remained tight, oscillating between 19.86 and 20.34 TWD.
Turning to the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), the currency's outlook appears resilient, bolstered by Taiwan's central bank raising its 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.55%, driven by strong semiconductor exports. However, concerns remain about the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Taiwan’s export-driven economy. Additionally, fluctuations in the TWD have intensified pressure on exporters and financial institutions, particularly those holding USD-denominated assets.
In conclusion, the AUD to TWD exchange rate is currently reflecting a cautious but stable trend influenced by both domestic economic indicators and broader geopolitical developments. Stakeholders should monitor both commodity prices and changes in interest rate policies as they could significantly affect future AUD performance against the TWD.
