CAD to JPY Forecast & Outlook
23 May 2026 • 00:48 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 110.9240 – 115.1000
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: 🔴 Downtrend
Currently, CAD/JPY is trading close to 115.1, just below its 3-month average, with the pair consolidating within its recent range. The dominant driver is risk sentiment, which remains biased towards risk-off, supported by the elevated safe-haven flows. Near-term conditions suggest the pair could face downward pressure if risk aversion persists.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Japan may find the exchange rate less favourable than recent levels if the pair declines further.
- Travellers: exchanging currency might encounter higher costs for Japanese Yen when purchasing abroad.
- Businesses: paying overseas invoices in JPY could see less advantageous conversion rates with CAD weakening.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada is seen as less aggressive, with the pair at 90-day average levels, while BOJ's stance keeps yen supported.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment supports the safe-haven yen, pressuring CAD/JPY.
- Global factors: Elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions reinforce a risk-averse environment.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: Unexpected stabilization of global risk appetite may support CAD.
- Downside risk: A further escalation in risk aversion or intervention risks by Japan could strengthen the yen further.
BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider to help reduce overall transfer costs.