The CAD to NZD exchange rate shows a bearish bias as both currencies experience contrasting pressures.
Key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential remains tight, with the Bank of Canada's policy rate at 2.25% while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to reduce rates to around 1.75% by mid-2026.
- Risk sentiment is affected by recent fluctuations in oil prices, with current oil at $61.32, 2.7% below its 3-month average, impacting the CAD as a commodity-linked currency.
- Canada’s strong job growth, with a significant increase in employment and a falling unemployment rate, supports the CAD despite oil price challenges.
Near-term, CAD to NZD may trade within a stable range influenced by current oil prices and economic data. Upside risks could emerge from a rebound in oil prices or stronger-than-expected Canadian economic indicators. Conversely, downward pressure may come from New Zealand’s trade performance or unexpected policy changes from the RBNZ.