CAD/NZD Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, influenced by commodity price trends.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained a cautious approach, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is considering more aggressive rate hikes due to rising inflation, widening the monetary policy gap.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at multi-month highs, supporting the CAD; however, the recent volatility suggests uncertainty that could impact demand.
• One macro factor: New Zealand's inflation has surged, exceeding targets, leading to stronger market expectations for interest rate increases from the RBNZ.
Range: The CAD/NZD pair is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range but may test lower extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant spike in oil prices could bolster CAD strength, improving its appeal.
• Downside risk: If inflation figures from New Zealand continue to rise sharply, it could prompt a faster RBNZ response, hurting the CAD further.