Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, current CAD/NZD trades below its 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range, with limited upside.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s, implying NZD could carry a modest yield edge and attract money flows when risk appetite improves.
- Oil/commodities: Oil is near 30-day highs and above its 3-month average, bolstering CAD through Canada’s commodity link while injecting volatility that can sharpen moves in CAD/NZD.
- Macro factor: The RBNZ is in an easing cycle with signals of further cuts, which can keep NZD under pressure relative to a slowly-adjusting global backdrop.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with tests of the lower end possible if risk-off conditions persist.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger Canadian data (trade balance or employment) could push CAD higher.
- Downside risk: further NZD weakness from more RBNZ rate cuts or renewed risk-off mood.