CAD/NZD Outlook:
The CAD/NZD exchange rate is likely to decrease as it is currently below its recent average and near recent lows, pressured by falling oil prices and economic performance concerns.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate, contrasting with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which may delay rate hikes until late 2026 or early 2027.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices at 90-day highs, falling oil prices are dragging on the CAD, which is sensitive to changes in commodity prices.
• Economic performance: Canada's GDP report today could show contraction, further dampening confidence in the loonie.
Range:
Expect the CAD/NZD to drift toward the lower end of its recent range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise improvement in Canada’s GDP could strengthen the CAD.
• Downside risk: Continued volatility and decline in oil prices may weaken the CAD further.