CAD/NZD Outlook:
The CAD/NZD exchange rate is likely to decrease, as it is trading significantly below its recent average and is positioned near its recent lows. Pressure from falling oil prices is contributing to this trend.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has kept its interest rate stable, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has pushed back expectations for rate hikes, supporting the NZD.
- Risk/commodities: Falling oil prices, which are currently above their three-month average, have weakened the CAD as lower oil demand hampers export revenues from Canada.
- One macro factor: New Zealand's business confidence is forecasted to improve, potentially boosting the NZD amidst recent fluctuations.
Range:
The CAD/NZD rate may drift lower as it continues to trade near recent lows.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A sudden rally in oil prices could boost the CAD significantly.
- Downside risk: Ongoing volatility in global trade dynamics could further weaken the NZD.