The exchange rate forecast for CAD to NZD shows notable developments driven by economic factors affecting both currencies. The Canadian dollar (CAD) has recently been supported by the approval of Prime Minister Mark Carney's first federal budget, which provided investors with some relief. However, ongoing fluctuations in oil prices remain a critical factor; as Canada is a major oil exporter, drops in crude prices typically exert downward pressure on the CAD. Currently, oil is trading at $64.89, which is 1.1% below its three-month average. This volatility suggests that any further declines could negatively impact the CAD's strength.
On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has seen mixed trading recently, influenced by economic challenges including a rising unemployment rate, which hit 5.3% in Q3 2025. While recent PPI figures could temper expectations regarding further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the central bank surprised markets with a significant 50 basis point cut to 2.5% in October, signaling serious concerns over economic growth. Additional inflation concerns, with rates hitting 3%, further complicate the outlook for the NZD.
Market analysts suggest that CAD's recent price movement reflects a robust position, trading at 1.2640 against the NZD—2.0% above its three-month average of 1.2396 and within a stable range from 1.2094 to 1.2659. This trend could continue if oil prices stabilize or recover, providing a boost to the CAD. In contrast, the NZD faces pressures from both domestic economic challenges and global trends that could limit its recovery.
Forecasts indicate that the CAD has a favorable outlook against the NZD in the short term, contingent upon oil price movements and the broader economic context, particularly relating to employment data and inflationary pressures in New Zealand. Investors should remain attentive to upcoming economic reports and central bank statements, as these will significantly influence the CAD/NZD exchange rate dynamics.
