CHF/INR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is currently above its 90-day average and near mid-range levels.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Swiss National Bank is considering negative interest rates to combat the strong CHF, while the Reserve Bank of India is focused on stabilizing the INR amid various pressures.
• Risk/commodities: High oil prices, influenced by global uncertainties, continue to put pressure on the INR due to India's significant oil import needs.
• One macro factor: India's persistent current account deficit is straining the rupee, exacerbating its challenges in the exchange rate market.
Range:
CHF/INR is likely to test the extremes of its recent range, considering the current position above its average.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A change in global risk appetite could increase demand for the CHF as a safe-haven currency.
• Downside risk: A significant improvement in India's trade balance could support the INR, weakening the CHF.