CHF/ZAR Outlook: The outlook for CHF/ZAR is slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and shows no clear driver for significant change.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Swiss National Bank's low policy rate contrasts with the recent interest rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank, which is creating a more favorable environment for the rand.
- Risk/commodities: The recent increase in oil prices could support the Rand further, as it can boost South Africa’s export revenues and economic outlook.
- One macro factor: The Swiss franc is under pressure due to negative impacts from new tariffs on Swiss exports, which could hamper growth moving forward.
Range: The CHF/ZAR rate is likely to drift within the recent range but may test the lower end as other factors come into play.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant improvement in Swiss economic data could strengthen the CHF.
- Downside risk: Further deterioration in Swiss export conditions or additional tariffs could weaken the franc.
