Recent forecasts regarding the CHF to ZAR exchange rate indicate a challenging environment for the Swiss Franc, driven primarily by significant geopolitical and economic factors affecting Switzerland's economic performance. The imposition of a 39% tariff on Swiss exports by the U.S. has led analysts to predict further depreciation of the CHF in the short to medium term, particularly since Swiss exports fell by 5.3% in the second quarter of 2025. This tariff, which was unexpectedly high compared to those faced by the EU or UK, threatens the core of Switzerland's export-driven economy.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is grappling with additional challenges, having reported a loss of 15.3 billion Swiss francs in the first half of 2025, largely due to a weakening U.S. dollar and poor international investment performance. Citing slow domestic growth, the International Monetary Fund has downgraded Switzerland’s growth forecast to 1.3% for the year. Furthermore, the SNB’s decision to lower interest rates to zero in an effort to boost the economy reflects a commitment to combating low inflation, which may further amplify pressure on the CHF.
In contrast, the South African Rand (ZAR) has shown relative stability amid domestic economic data evaluations, remaining steady at 17.58 against the U.S. dollar, with an upward movement following an increase in net foreign reserves. However, a decline in business confidence due to a 30% U.S. tariff on South African exports has caused concern, as this could hinder future economic growth and stability in the ZAR.
The current exchange rate of CHF to ZAR is at 14-day lows near 21.80, marking a 1.3% decrease from its three-month average of 22.09. This reflects the recent volatility in oil prices, with OIL to USD trading at 7-day lows around 66.66, which may also indirectly impact the ZAR due to South Africa's dependence on oil imports.
Experts suggest potential for the CHF to weaken further against the ZAR if economic conditions in Switzerland continue to deteriorate, compounded by ongoing tariff uncertainties. Market participants may want to keep an eye on any changes to the financial landscape, including developments from the SNB and broader global trade dynamics, which are likely to influence exchange rate trends in the coming months.
