The current market bias for the CHF to ZAR exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- The Swiss National Bank's recent rate cuts, reducing interest to 0.5%, contributing to a weaker CHF.
- South Africa's economic growth forecast is improving, projected at 1.4% in 2026, which supports a healthier ZAR.
- Inflation targeting in South Africa aims to stabilize the currency, while Switzerland faces low inflation, potentially pressuring the franc further.
The near-term range suggests continued fluctuations, potentially remaining within a stable range.
One upside risk may arise if global factors strengthen the demand for Swiss exports, which could boost the CHF. Conversely, a downside risk includes further adverse effects from the U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports, which would likely weigh on the CHF against the ZAR. Recent data indicates the CHF to ZAR is at its 90-day lows, trading near 20.82, while ZAR strength is further complicated by declining oil prices.