The EUR to PKR exchange rate is currently at 327.1, remaining 0.5% below its three-month average of 328.8. This price reflects a stable trading range of 3.8% over the past few months, moving between 323.3 and 335.7. Analysts indicate that the euro has strengthened due to a weakened US dollar, which has allowed it to weather the recent downward revision of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI.
Looking ahead, the euro’s trajectory will be influenced by several key developments. Market expectations are focusing on the latest consumer price index from the Eurozone, as high inflation figures could confirm that the European Central Bank (ECB) has halted its cutting cycle, potentially providing further support for the euro. However, a recent dovish shift in the ECB’s monetary policy, with interest rates projected to decrease to 3.5% by late 2025, may narrow the interest rate differential with the US, which could weigh on the euro.
Meanwhile, Bulgaria's upcoming accession to the Eurozone in 2026 is expected to bolster the euro's circulation, enhancing its influence in the global currency markets. Despite these positives, geopolitical unrest, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, has significantly impacted the euro’s stability. The resultant energy crisis and inflationary pressures continue to create volatility, making the outlook for the euro uncertain.
On the other side, the Pakistani rupee (PKR) is facing significant challenges amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, which have contributed to a 12% depreciation against the US dollar since January 2025. Projections suggest a potential decline to 100 PKR/USD by year-end. However, record remittances and a recent staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have provided some support to the PKR. The State Bank of Pakistan's interventions in the foreign exchange market have also aimed to stabilize the rupee, although these measures may not align with market fundamentals.
The interplay of these factors ultimately influences the EUR/PKR exchange rate. Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices, such as the recent drop in OIL to USD at 63.33, which is 2.4% below its three-month average, may indirectly affect the EUR/PKR dynamics. As oil prices stabilize, related impacts on inflation and economic forecasts in the Eurozone could further shape the outlook for the euro. Hence, ongoing monitoring of both regional economic indicators and geopolitical developments will be crucial for accurate forecasting in the months ahead.
