Forecasts for EUR to TWD
Recent forecasts and market analyses indicate a bearish outlook for the euro (EUR) against the Taiwan dollar (TWD) in the near term. The EUR is currently trading at 33.95 TWD, which is notably 4.2% below its three-month average of 35.43 TWD. This decline is attributed partly to a volatile trading range of 13.2% observed over the past few months, resulting in fluctuations between 33.02 and 37.37 TWD.
Economic pressures from within the Eurozone are contributing to the euro's weakness. Recent unemployment figures from Germany showed a concerning increase of 34,000 individuals seeking work, marking the largest monthly rise since July 2022. Even though the unemployment rate remained steady, this rise indicates underlying economic challenges that could weigh on the euro's value. Analysts have pointed out that without substantial positive news from Eurozone economic releases or EU-US trade discussions, the euro may struggle to regain strength.
Additionally, the broader geopolitical landscape remains a concern for the euro. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to impact the Eurozone through energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. The European Central Bank's policy responses will play a pivotal role in shaping the euro's future performance, especially in the context of rising interest rates aimed at curbing inflation.
The TWD may also face external pressures. The imposition of a 32% tariff on Taiwanese goods by the US adds to the challenges of Taiwan's economy, especially given the dependence on its technology sector, which is vulnerable to a global tech slowdown and geopolitical tensions with China. Experts have warned that any escalation in these tensions could further depress the value of the TWD.
Furthermore, movements in global oil prices could indirectly influence both currencies. Currently, oil prices are at 14-day lows near 63.90 USD, significantly below their three-month average of 67.32 USD. A decline in oil prices can have implications for inflation and economic recovery in the Eurozone, potentially impacting the euro's trajectory in relation to the TWD.
In conclusion, the euro is likely to remain under pressure against the Taiwan dollar due to combination of internal economic challenges within the Eurozone, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the impact of shifting global commodity prices. Analysts suggest that monitoring developments in trade negotiations and central bank policies will be crucial in forecasting future movements in the EUR/TWD exchange rate.
