Recent forecasts for the EUR to TWD exchange rate indicate a period of stabilization for the euro, primarily driven by improving consumer sentiment within the Eurozone. Analysts have noted a positive shift, with the latest consumer confidence index reaching its highest level since February, suggesting a resilient economic backdrop despite some ongoing challenges. However, there are concerns regarding potential moderation in private-sector growth, particularly as the Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a contraction this month, which could dampen the euro's strength.
Key macroeconomic indicators and monetary policies from the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to influence the euro's performance. A hawkish stance from the ECB could bolster the euro, while any dovish policies or indications of sluggish growth could exert downward pressure. Furthermore, geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, maintain layers of uncertainty that could affect the euro significantly in the near term. The euro has recently reached 90-day highs near 35.87 TWD, marking a 1.3% increase above its three-month average, showing that it has remained resilient within a relatively stable trading range.
On the other hand, the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) has also demonstrated signs of strength, bolstered by a positive economic growth forecast from Taiwan's central bank, which increased its estimate to 4.55% for 2025, largely driven by robust exports, especially in the semiconductor sector. Despite some concerns over currency appreciation hampering export competitiveness, forecasters expect the TWD to appreciate further in the latter half of 2025. A maintained benchmark interest rate at 2% provides a supportive environment for the currency against global uncertainties.
Oil price movements also play a role in the currency dynamics. Recent reports show that oil prices have experienced volatility, currently at 14-day highs near 65.94 USD, which could impact inflation and subsequent ECB policy decisions. Given the euro's sensitivity to oil prices and inflationary pressures, fluctuation in oil could have downstream effects on the EUR/TWD exchange rate.
In summary, the outlook for the EUR to TWD exchange rate encompasses a balanced view, with supportive factors for both currencies emerging from economic growth forecasts, central bank policies, and external geopolitical influences. Given these variables, continuous monitoring of economic indicators and central bank actions will remain paramount for businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions.
