Bias: range-bound, GBP/CHF is above its ninety-day average and sits near the upper end of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE policy is likely to stay comparatively restrictive longer, while the SNB remains highly accommodative, keeping a supportive tilt for GBP vs CHF in the near term.
- Macro factor: UK growth is projected to slow, trimming sterling’s upside against the franc.
- Risk appetite: calmer markets tend to anchor moves, with safe-haven demand serving as a potential CHF bid if risk appetite worsens.
Range: likely to drift within the three-month range, with a tendency to test the upper extreme but not break.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger-than-expected UK data or a firmer BoE stance that widens the policy gap.
- Downside risk: Swiss franc strength from safe-haven demand or clearer signs of SNB tightening.