GBP/CHF Outlook: Likely to move sideways, as the rate is near its 90-day average and lacks a clear driver for substantial movement.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates, while the Swiss National Bank maintains a zero policy rate, creating a modest gap in monetary policy outlooks.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have recently stabilized, with negligible effects on the GBP as the UK remains sensitive to global trade tensions impacting its economy.
• One macro factor: US tariffs could push the UK towards recession, further complicating economic growth for the GBP in the coming years.
Range: GBP/CHF is likely to hold within its recent stable range, without significant pressure to break out in either direction.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A shift in US tariff policy could boost the GBP against the CHF.
• Downside risk: Continued negative economic indicators from the UK could lead to further declines in GBP value.
