Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, because GBP/CLP is below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE is expected to ease more aggressively than CLP, widening the policy-rate gap and weighing on GBP.
- Risk/commodities: Copper prices firm, supporting CLP through stronger export revenue.
- One macro factor: Chile’s Kast victory and reform hopes support CLP.
Range: GBP/CLP is likely to drift within the lower part of its 3-month range, with occasional tests toward the low end.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger UK data or a slower pace of BoE rate cuts could push GBP higher.
- Downside risk: sharper-than-expected Chilean rate cuts or a pullback in copper prices could push GBP lower.