Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, with GBP/CLP trading below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE is expected to ease gradually, while Chile's central bank has shifted to a looser stance, narrowing the policy-rate gap and supporting the peso.
- Copper/commodities: Copper prices firm on supply constraints and demand from energy and data sectors, lifting Chile’s export receipts and underpinning the peso.
- Political developments: Kast’s victory and reform plans support peso resilience.
Range: GBP/CLP is likely to drift within the lower half of the recent range, with limited upside near term unless fresh data surprises materialize.
What could change it:
Upside risk: stronger UK data and a slower easing path for the BoE could push GBP higher.
Downside risk: Chilean reform momentum boosting the peso could push GBP/CLP lower.