Forecasts for GBP to EUR
The GBP to EUR exchange rate has recently faced downward pressure, with analysts noting that the British pound (GBP) stumbled after UK GDP contracted by 0.3% in April, exceeding expectations for growth. This disappointing economic data caused immediate declines in GBP exchange rates. However, the pound managed to recover some losses later in the trading session, particularly against weaker currencies. Today's UK economic calendar is sparse, which could leave the pound without a clear direction, leading market experts to suggest it may trade in a range depending on broader sentiment.
On the euro (EUR) side, the currency received a boost following hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, including President Christine Lagarde. As the ECB signals confidence in the medium-term economic recovery and inflation, this has offset some of the downward pressures stemming from weaker Eurozone data—economists expect a narrowing trade surplus and a decline in industrial production. Despite these positive signals, mixed economic indicators could lead to fluctuations in the euro's value.
Current price data shows that GBP to EUR is trading at approximately 1.1743, which is near recent 30-day lows and 0.6% below its three-month average of 1.1814. The pair has exhibited a relatively stable range, fluctuating only 4.2% between a low of 1.1517 and a high of 1.1995 in recent months, indicating limited volatility despite ongoing economic uncertainties.
Additionally, the euro's movement can be influenced by global oil prices, which have recently shown volatility. The Brent Crude OIL to USD rate is currently at 69.36, approximately 3.8% above its three-month average, having traded in a significant range from 60.14 to 75.02. As oil prices rise, they can affect inflationary pressures within the Eurozone, further complicating the outlook for the euro and its relationship with the pound.
Experts recommend closely monitoring UK economic data and ECB policy statements, as these will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of the GBP to EUR exchange rate in the coming weeks. Shifts in global market sentiment and geopolitical developments will also play a vital role in influencing currency valuations.