GBP/EUR Outlook:
The GBP/EUR exchange rate is slightly weaker, trading near recent lows and just below its 90-day average. The pressure arises from expectations of a Bank of England rate cut due to rising unemployment and slowing wage growth.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates in March, while the European Central Bank maintains a cautious monetary stance.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their recent average, which can lead to increased costs across Europe and pressure on the euro.
• One macro factor: Recent UK employment data indicated rising unemployment and lower wage growth, contributing to downward pressure on the pound.
Range:
The GBP/EUR pair is likely to drift within its recent trading range, as it has shown stability despite current pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise increase in UK inflation could delay rate cuts from the BoE.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in the UK labor market could strengthen bets for a rate cut, exerting more pressure on the pound.