GBP/EUR Outlook:
The GBP/EUR exchange rate is slightly positive, trading near its 3-month average and at 14-day highs, buoyed by reduced expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. Support is likely as UK inflation proves stickier compared to the Eurozone, strengthening the pound.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The BoE is expected to ease interest rates more slowly than the European Central Bank (ECB), which keeps the GBP competitive.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices soaring above recent averages, the pound benefits from strengthened energy sectors.
• One macro factor: The services PMI report today may indicate robust activity in the UK, offering further support to GBP.
Range:
GBP/EUR is expected to hold within its recent range, potentially testing extremes as market conditions fluctuate.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprisingly strong services PMI could boost GBP further.
• Downside risk: Renewed strong signals for a BoE rate cut could weaken GBP against EUR.