The market bias for GBP to EUR is range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rate differentials: The Bank of England may cut rates amid slowing inflation and growth, while the European Central Bank remains data-dependent, impacting the euro's stability.
- Economic growth: The UK's anticipated low growth may exert downward pressure on the pound, while the eurozone benefits from projected GDP growth supported by fiscal measures.
- Commodities: Rising oil prices could influence the euro, as oil is crucial for the eurozone economy, potentially providing a supportive backdrop for the euro.
In the near term, expect the GBP to EUR trading range to remain narrow, with suitability around current levels. Upside risk for the pound could come from unexpected positive economic data or a more aggressive stance from the Bank of England. Conversely, a worsening UK fiscal situation or renewed geopolitical tensions might push the pound lower against the euro.