The current market bias for the GBP to EUR exchange rate is range-bound. Key drivers include the Bank of England's expected interest rate cuts, forecasted to drop to 3.25% this year, while the European Central Bank maintains a watchful eye on economic data with a flexible interest rate approach. Additionally, UK inflation is declining, which may pressure the pound further.
In the near term, the GBP to EUR rate is expected to remain stable between recent highs and averages, reflecting a narrow trading range. Upside risks include signs of stronger economic performance in the Eurozone due to fiscal measures and growth projections. Conversely, downside risks arise from ongoing fiscal concerns in the UK, such as a slowdown in growth and uncertainty around tax policy, which may weaken the pound further.
Recent price data show GBP to EUR is near 1.1485, slightly above the 3-month average, and oil prices have been volatile, which can impact euro strength indirectly.