GBP/EUR Outlook:
The GBP/EUR exchange rate is likely to decrease as it currently trades near recent lows and is positioned just below the 90-day average. Pressure from potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England adds to the selling bias for the pound.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rates contrasts with a more aggressive approach by the US Federal Reserve, leading to downward pressure on the GBP.
- Risk/commodities: With oil prices trading at highs, the strong USD typically strengthens against the GBP, influencing the GBP/EUR exchange rate negatively.
- One macro factor: Recent retail sales data from the UK may heighten expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England, potentially contributing to further losses for the pound.
Range:
The GBP/EUR rate is expected to drift within its recent stable range.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A reversal in rate cut expectations by the Bank of England could strengthen the pound.
- Downside risk: Further weakening economic indicators or significant political instability in the UK could exacerbate downward pressure.