GBP to EUR Forecast & Outlook
09 May 2026 • 00:25 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 1.1400 – 1.1600
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: ⚪ Range-bound
Currently, GBP/EUR is trading near 1.1558, close to its 90-day average and within a range from 1.1403 to 1.1596. The pair remains supported by risk-off conditions and European geopolitical tensions, which weigh on the euro. Over the next few sessions, the pair could face downward pressure if risk sentiment persists, as market focus stays on safe-haven flows. Near-term conditions suggest the exchange rate may remain sensitive to fluctuations in global risk appetite.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Eurozone should find current levels slightly less favourable than recent, with potential for further weakening.
- Travellers: exchanging currency may encounter rates offering less value compared to recent levels if the pair declines further.
- Businesses: paying Euro invoices in GBP might see less favourable conversion rates, increasing costs if the pair moves lower.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The UK’s Bank of England may hold rates steady or delay hikes, widening the gap that supports weaker GBP.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions and global economic concerns continues to support safe havens, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies like GBP.
- Global factors: European geopolitical issues and central bank policy expectations dominate the pair’s recent behaviour, reinforcing cautious trading.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: If risk appetite improves and geopolitical tensions ease, GBP could find support and strengthen slightly.
- Downside risk: A further escalation of geopolitical tensions or weaker-than-expected UK economic data could deepen GBP’s decline.
BER suggests that comparing FX providers may help offset less favourable exchange conditions and find lower margins to reduce total transfer costs.