The market bias for GBP to HKD is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, as the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce rates to 3.25% by mid-2026 while the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is likely to maintain stable rates, creating downward pressure on GBP. Economic growth forecasts also weigh on the Pound, with the UK projected to grow at 1.4% in 2026, down from 1.9% in 2025.
The GBP to HKD pair is expected to trade within a stable range, hovering around current prices, not straying significantly from recent levels. Recent price data shows GBP to HKD at approximately 10.47, just above its 3-month average of 10.35, indicating limited volatility.
An upside risk could stem from an unexpected increase in UK growth, while a downside risk might arise from continued fiscal concerns in the UK affecting investor confidence.