The GBP to HUF exchange rate has been under significant pressure recently, with current levels hovering around 451.5 HUF per GBP, marking a 1.9% decline from the three-month average of 460.5 HUF. Analysts attribute this downward trend to multiple factors influencing both currencies.
For the British pound, concerns over the UK’s fiscal health remain paramount. Speculation regarding potential tax hikes or spending cuts in light of widening public finances has created a cautious market sentiment. In addition, recent revisions by major banks like HSBC and Deutsche Bank regarding the Bank of England’s interest rate outlook emphasize a steady stance amid persistent inflation, with expected rate cuts pushed back into 2026. These developments contribute to the pound maintaining a relatively weak position against other currencies.
Conversely, the Hungarian forint faces its own challenges. The projected budget deficit of 4.5% of GDP for 2025 is causing unease among investors, particularly due to the sluggish economic growth across Europe. Additionally, the nomination of Finance Minister Mihaly Varga as the new head of Hungary's central bank raises concerns about possible interest rate cuts that could destabilize the forint further. The depreciating forint and ongoing discussions about euro adoption also add layers of complexity to its outlook.
As the markets approach the upcoming UK budget announcement on November 26, responses to these budgetary concerns could further impact the GBP's performance. Inflationary pressures heightened by U.S. tariffs on imports, which may affect Hungary due to its trade ties, are also influencing the forint’s valuation. Analysts suggest that these fiscal and monetary uncertainties could lead to continued volatility in the GBP/HUF exchange rate.
Given the current trend, businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should remain vigilant as exchange rate fluctuations may impact costs significantly in the near future.
