The market bias for the GBP to HUF exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include the interest rate outlook, where the Bank of England is expected to cut rates to 3.25% by mid-2026 due to slowing inflation and growth. Meanwhile, the Hungarian National Bank's disciplined monetary policy helped the HUF appreciate recently, which could put additional pressure on the pound. Additionally, Hungary’s inflation slightly decreased, but high core inflation may delay any potential rate cuts, impacting the HUF’s value.
In the near term, GBP to HUF is likely to remain within a stable range, trading around its 3-month average. The current price is only slightly above this average, showing limited volatility.
Upside risk for the GBP includes stronger-than-expected U.S. dollar weakness, while a downside risk could stem from further fiscal concerns in the UK, which may lead to decreased confidence in the pound.