The exchange rate forecast for the GBP to HUF is currently influenced by a mix of economic concerns and recent developments on both sides. Analysts note that the British pound (GBP) faces challenges stemming from budgetary worries in the UK, particularly as the market anticipates Chancellor Rachel Reeves's autumn budget. There is a notable risk premium built into the pound due to these concerns, with the possibility of changes in child benefit policies raising questions about fiscal sustainability. A speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is also on the radar, as a hawkish stance could potentially provide upward momentum for the GBP.
Recent data from the UK suggests stagnation, with a widening current account deficit and slowing real wage growth amid high inflation impacting consumer purchasing power. Despite this, the GBP managed to edge higher against the US dollar recently, buoyed by investor caution regarding a U.S. government shutdown, which suggests that market focus may be shifting towards external factors.
On the Hungarian side, the forint (HUF) is under pressure from several factors including a change in central bank leadership and lower growth projections. The appointment of Mihály Varga as the new Governor of the National Bank of Hungary raises concerns about future monetary policy directions. Meanwhile, forecasts indicate that Hungary's economic growth will only reach about 1.8% in 2025, which is significantly below the government's initial expectations. This subdued outlook is coupled with increased inflation forecasts, projected between 3.3% to 4.1%, exacerbated by potential U.S. tariffs on EU imports. Such tariffs are likely to strain Hungary's economic conditions, especially given its strong trade links with Germany.
In terms of the exchange rate, GBP to HUF recently peaked at around 452.8, marking a 14-day high just below its three-month average. This stability is evident within a relatively narrow trading range of 4.4% from 444.9 to 464.6, indicating a cautious market presence amidst the ongoing economic uncertainties in both the UK and Hungary.
Overall, forecasters suggest that upcoming economic data from both nations, along with major policy announcements, will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the GBP to HUF exchange rate. Businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should stay vigilant about potential fluctuations that could impact their currency conversion rates.
