GBP/IDR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's decision to possibly maintain interest rates contrasts with Bank Indonesia's interventions to stabilize the rupiah, affecting currency valuations.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have recently been volatile, impacting Indonesia's exports and thus influencing the rupiah's strength against the pound.
• One macro factor: The UK's anticipated economic slowdown coupled with potential interest rate cuts by the BoE could weaken GBP, offsetting its current strength.
Range: GBP/IDR is expected to hold steady within the current range, as it has been stable recently.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected UK manufacturing data could provide additional support for the pound.
• Downside risk: Increased geopolitical tensions might negatively impact investor confidence in GBP, leading to a potential drop.
