Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, with GBP/IDR above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The BoE is expected to ease gradually, which could keep the pound firm against the IDR if UK data aligns with forecasts.
- External backdrop: With UK data scarce, sterling moves are driven by broader FX trends and global risk appetite rather than local data.
- Indonesian macro: Indonesian growth resilience and a trade surplus support the IDR, though foreign inflows into government bonds remain a risk.
Range: GBP/IDR is likely to drift within the recent 3-month band, with a tilt toward the upper end if sterling steadies.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger UK data or visibility on BoE rate cuts could push GBP higher.
- Downside risk: softer UK data or renewed calls for aggressive BoE easing could push GBP lower.