GBP/ILS Outlook:
The GBP/ILS is likely to decrease as it trades well below its recent average and near its recent lows, with little support for a recovery at this time.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rates contrasts with the Bank of Israel's recent cut, weakening GBP expectations against ILS.
• Risk/commodities: Global uncertainties related to conflicts push demand toward safe-haven currencies, negatively impacting GBP.
• One macro factor: Mixed signals from the UK's services PMI, showing inflation concerns but fears of job cuts, add pressure on the currency's stability.
Range:
The GBP/ILS is expected to drift within its recent movement limits, likely testing towards the lower end.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant stabilization in global risk appetite could bolster GBP against ILS.
• Downside risk: Further geopolitical tensions could deepen GBP's decline against the safer ILS.