The current market bias for the GBP to ILS exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rate changes; the Bank of England (BoE) is projected to cut rates further, whereas the Bank of Israel (BoI) is expected to maintain a stronger economic outlook with increased GDP growth.
- Positive sentiment surrounding the ILS is bolstered by improved geopolitical stability and robust economic forecasts, suggesting a solid recovery in Israel.
- UK inflation is anticipated to decline gradually, which may affect the pound negatively as growth slows.
In the near term, the GBP to ILS exchange rate is expected to trade within a stable range similar to recent patterns.
An upside risk for the GBP could stem from a surprise rebound in UK economic data, while a downside risk involves continued strength of the ILS driven by positive developments in Israel’s economy and ongoing geopolitical improvements.