Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound; GBPILS sits below its 90-day average and near the lower end of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE is on a gradual easing path into 2026, while the Bank of Israel has already cut and inflation pressure looks easing; the evolving gap supports relative ILS strength versus GBP.
- Risk appetite: Israel’s solid growth backdrop and policy shifts keep the ILS supported, while UK data scarcity keeps GBP exposed to wider moves.
- Macro factor: Israel’s growth outlook remains robust into 2026, underpinning the ILS.
Range: GBPILS is likely to drift within the current band, with a test of the lower boundary if UK data stay weak.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: unexpectedly strong UK data or a less aggressive BoE stance could push GBP higher.
- Downside risk: further Israeli growth outperformance or another round of BoI easing strengthens the ILS and weighs on GBP.