Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the current exchange rate is below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance on future rate cuts contrasts with the Bank of Israel's recent interest rate reduction, affecting the GBP's competitiveness against the ILS.
- Risk/commodities: The shekel's strength is underpinned by improving global economic conditions, which has bolstered the stability of its value against currencies like the GBP.
- Macro factor: The UK's GDP growth is expected to slow, driven by stagnant incomes and reduced public spending, which may weigh on the GBP's performance.
Range: The GBP/ILS exchange rate is likely to drift within its recent range, potentially testing the lower extremes without a significant recovery.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected UK economic data release could boost the GBP.
- Downside risk: Continued weakness in UK economic projections could further depress the GBP against the ILS.