GBP/ILS Outlook:
The GBP/ILS exchange rate is likely to decrease as it currently trades below its recent average and is near recent lows. The pressure from expectations of a Bank of England interest rate cut contributes to this bearish outlook.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rates contrasts with the Bank of Israel's recent cut, making the ILS more attractive to investors.
- Risk/commodities: Fluctuations in global oil prices may add volatility to the ILS, impacting its value against the GBP as investor preferences shift.
- One macro factor: Ongoing political uncertainties in the UK could diminish confidence in the pound, particularly ahead of pivotal elections.
Range:
GBP/ILS is expected to drift within its recent 3-month range, lacking clear drivers to push it out of this stable pattern.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surprise rise in UK retail sales could bolster the GBP.
- Downside risk: Stronger economic indicators from Israel could further support the ILS.