GBP/ILS Outlook:
The GBP/ILS rate is currently below its 90-day average, suggesting a bearish trend. Recent economic data from the UK could exert additional pressure on the pound, particularly if the jobs report indicates a slowing labor market.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rates opposes the Bank of Israel's recent rate cut, putting pressure on the pound against the shekel.
• Risk/commodities: Global geopolitical tensions have heightened investor risk aversion, influencing currency flows and strengthening the shekel.
• One macro factor: Recent reports show UK inflationary pressures persist, complicating the Bank of England’s ability to adjust rates positively for the pound.
Range:
Expect the GBP/ILS to hold steady within its recent range as market participants react to incoming data and rates.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected jobs report from the UK could provide support to the pound.
• Downside risk: Further signs of deterioration in the UK labor market may deepen the pound's decline against the shekel.