GBP to ILS Forecast
In the near term, GBP/ILS is trading close to its recent lows, holding near the 90-day average. The pair is under pressure from the dominant driver of central bank policy and risk-off sentiment. Current conditions suggest the exchange rate may remain supported by risk aversion, but the overall bias points to a potential weakening of the pound against the shekel if risk appetite remains subdued.
Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money abroad from GBP to ILS may find conversions slightly less favourable than recent levels.
- Travellers: buying ILS foreign cash or loading currency cards could face pressure if GBP weakens further.
- Businesses: paying Israeli invoices in ILS using GBP might see costs increase if the pair trends lower.
Key drivers
- Rate gap: The Bank of Israel’s interest rate cuts support the shekel, narrowing the yield differential with the UK.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical and energy tensions continues to weigh on the pound.
- Global factors: Broader risk conditions and market caution sustain demand for safe havens, reinforcing the recent bias.
What could change it
- Upside risk: A sudden easing of risk aversion could support GBP if global tensions diminish.
- Downside risk: Further risk aversion or geopolitical escalation could lead to additional pressure on GBP/ILS.