GBP/ILS Outlook:
The GBP/ILS exchange rate is likely to decrease, currently trading below its recent average and near recent lows. Pressure from BoE rate cut expectations adds to the downward bias.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is facing increasing pressure to cut rates, while the Bank of Israel recently lowered its key rate, which favors the ILS.
• Risk/commodities: With the shekel strengthening to a 30-year high against the US dollar, the ILS is benefiting from improved global risk appetite.
• One macro factor: UK retail sales data could amplify concerns over the economy, fuelling further expectations for BoE rate cuts.
Range:
Expect the GBP/ILS to drift lower within its recent range as it tests the lower end.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising rise in UK retail sales could alleviate BoE cut concerns and support GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued deteriorating economic indicators from the UK may enhance the selling pressure on the pound.