Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as GBP/ILS sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The BoE remains cautious on rate cuts with a gradual path expected this year, while the Bank of Israel has already delivered a cut, boosting the ILS versus GBP.
Macro: BoI’s cut accompanies Israel’s stronger growth outlook, reinforcing the shekel’s relative resilience.
Range: GBP/ILS is likely to hold in the 3-month band, with a gentle drift toward the bottom end and occasional touches of the lower boundary.
What could change it:
Upside risk: stronger UK data or a less dovish BoE trajectory could lift GBP.
Downside risk: weaker UK data or a faster pace of BoE rate cuts could push GBP lower.