Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, GBP/INR sits about 1.8% above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE remains cautious with gradual easing, while RBI has actively defended the rupee, supporting INR stability.
- Risk/commodities: global risk appetite and oil price moves shape flows; firmer sentiment tends to lift sterling against EM peers.
- Macro factor: India-US trade tensions and export pressures keep INR under pressure, biasing GBP/INR higher.
Range: Range: likely to drift within the 3-month band, with a tendency to hover near the upper end.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger UK data and a clearer BoE stance to defend rate differentials push GBP/INR higher.
- Downside risk: RBI steps up intervention or India's trade outlook improves, lifting INR and narrowing GBP/INR.