Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, current level sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: BoE signals cautious rate cuts while the RBI continues to defend the rupee, widening the policy stance gap.
Macro factor: UK inflation easing toward the BoE target supports the pound’s resilience against INR.
Global risk appetite: risk-off conditions keep INR supported, but a calmer mood could allow GBP to catch up.
Range: GBP/INR is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range, with a bias toward testing the high end if risk appetite improves.
What could change it:
Upside risk: firmer UK inflation data or a clearer BoE policy path could lift the pound.
Downside risk: RBI interventions and persistent capital outflows could push INR stronger, weighing on GBP/INR.