Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as GBP/MXN sits below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE remains restrictive with gradual easing expected later in 2026, while Banxico holds, narrowing the policy gap.
- Risk/commodities: Oil remains volatile; firmer crude supports MXN through energy links and risk appetite, tempering any GBP strength.
- Macro factor: Mexico’s tariff regime on non-FTA imports adds near-term growth risks and keeps MXN under pressure.
Range: GBP/MXN is likely to drift in the three-month range, with a test of the lower end if risk mood stays soft.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: UK data surprises to the upside and BoE signals a longer high-rate stance, lifting GBP.
- Downside risk: Mexico’s tourism rebound and infrastructure upgrades bolster MXN, weighing on GBP/MXN.