Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the current level is below the 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England has indicated a cautious approach to rate cuts, while the Bank of Mexico has paused its rate-cutting cycle, supporting the peso.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are volatile, which impacts Mexico as a significant oil exporter, potentially affecting the peso’s strength.
- Economic growth forecasts: Mexico's GDP is projected to grow modestly, while the UK's GDP growth is expected to slow, both creating a challenging environment for their currencies.
Range: GBP/MXN is likely to hold steady near recent lows, with potential movement within a stable range.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surprise shift in UK economic data could boost the pound's appeal.
- Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions or poor trade data could weaken the pound further against the peso.