The GBP to MXN exchange rate exhibits a bullish bias, supported by recent Bank of England (BoE) statements hinting at slower future rate cuts. Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with the BoE expected to cut rates to 3.25% by mid-2026 while the Mexican central bank, Banxico, may reduce rates more cautiously. Economic growth in the UK is anticipated to slow, impacting the GBP positively as inflation trends down.
The expected trading range suggests stability in GBP to MXN within a moderately tight range over the next few months, reflecting resilience despite economic concerns.
Upside risks include stronger retail sales in the UK, which could bolster the pound. Conversely, a greater divergence in monetary policy between the UK and Mexico could apply downward pressure on the GBP, affecting its value against the peso. Recent data shows GBP to MXN at 24.24, just below the 3-month average, having traded in a narrow 3.7% range, indicating relative stability.