The GBP to MXN exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The Bank of England plans to cut interest rates to 3.25% by mid-2026, creating a widening interest rate differential compared to the Mexican central bank, which is expected to maintain stable rates.
- UK inflation is projected to decline, slowing economic growth, while the Mexican economy appears more resilient, supported by stable fiscal policies.
- Analysts forewarn that UK fiscal policies may increase downward pressure on the GBP, while expectations of U.S. rate cuts could boost the MXN.
In the near term, the GBP to MXN rate may fluctuate within a stable range influenced by the recent price data, remaining near its historical average.
Upside risks include stronger-than-anticipated UK economic data that might bolster the GBP. Downside risks involve potential divergence in the monetary policies of the U.S. and Mexico, impacting investor confidence in the GBP.