Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, current GBP/MXN sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the past three months' range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The BoE is signaling a cautious easing path, while Banxico has kept policy on hold, creating a divergence that tends to keep the pair sensitive to data surprises.
- Macro factor: Mexico’s growth outlook for 2026 remains modest, with external demand and policy choices adding headwinds to MXN, which may soften when domestic fundamentals lag.
- Trade policy changes: Mexico’s tariffs on imports from China could weigh on export activity and MXN demand by influencing supply chains and price pressures.
Range: GBP/MXN is likely to drift within its three-month range, with a test of the lower end possible.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger UK data or a clearer BoE signal to slow or pause rate cuts could support GBP.
- Downside risk: UK data softness or a larger-than-expected BoE easing path could weigh on GBP, pushing GBP/MXN lower.