Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, with GBP/NZD above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: BoE is easing more slowly than the RBNZ, helping the pound stay bid versus the kiwi as the UK path remains cautious.
• Macro factor: The U.S. Federal Reserve appears cautious on rate cuts, keeping US yields higher for longer and supporting GBP against NZD.
• Risk/commodities: Global risk appetite has been fragile, with the kiwi more sensitive to risk moves than sterling; this tends to leave GBP/NZD firmer when risk conditions are mixed.
Range: GBP/NZD is expected to drift within the three-month range, with a mild tilt toward the upper end as markets factor in the UK easing path relative to NZ policy.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger-than-expected UK data or hawkish BoE commentary that delays further easing, keeping the rate differential wider and supporting GBP versus NZD.
• Downside risk: NZ data surprises to the upside or RBNZ signals an end to easing, narrowing the rate gap.