Bias: Range-bound, current GBP/NZD sits near the upper half of the 3-month range and near 30-day highs, with no clear signal from the 90-day average, keeping the pair in a cautious holding pattern.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: BoE is cautious with rate cuts likely in 2026; the RBNZ has started easing and is expected to ease further.
• Macro factor: U.S. Federal Reserve remains cautious on rate cuts while the RBNZ keeps easing, shaping cross flows.
• Global risk mood: A cautious mood tends to weigh more on NZD than GBP, keeping the cross supported when risk appetite firm.
Range: Likely to drift within the 3-month range, with mild moves toward the upper end if risk appetite improves and policy expectations shift.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Strong UK data or firmer BoE guidance toward a slower path of cuts could lift GBP/NZD.
• Downside risk: Renewed risk-off mood or US tariffs on NZ exports could push NZD lower, pressuring the cross.