Bias: range-bound, current price sits near the upper end of the 3-month range, while its stance vs the 90-day average is unclear.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: BoE is signaling gradual easing in 2026, while Qatar Central Bank maintains a peg to the USD and adjusts policy to keep the peg intact.
• Risk/commodities: Oil remains firm and volatile, lifting risk appetite, which tends to support GBP when risk assets recover, while QAR moves with the USD rather than oil directly, so the broader risk tone matters.
• One macro factor: Qatar’s economy is seen as strengthening with non-hydrocarbon sectors expanding, supporting overall Riyal stability.
Range: GBP/QAR is likely to drift within the recent three-month range, with occasional tests toward the upper end if oil remains firm and markets stay constructive.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: sustained higher oil prices and a brighter global risk environment could push GBP higher against QAR.
• Downside risk: a sharp oil downturn or stronger USD could push GBP lower against QAR.
