GBP/QAR Outlook: The outlook for GBP/QAR is slightly positive but likely to move sideways, as the rate is currently above its recent average but lacks a clear driver for upward momentum.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England’s cautious approach to rate cuts may limit gains for the pound compared to the Qatari Riyal, which benefits from stronger economic forecasts.
• Risk/commodities: Recent rises in oil prices, trading above average, could support the Qatari economy and thus strengthen the QAR against a relatively stagnant GBP.
• One macro factor: The UK's GDP growth is expected to slow, influenced by stagnant household incomes and reduced spending, adding pressure on the GBP.
Range: GBP/QAR is likely to hold within its recent 3-month range but could drift slightly given the conflicting signals from both economies.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise increase in UK economic data could bolster the GBP.
• Downside risk: Further declines in UK consumer confidence could lead to a weaker GBP.
