GBP/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average yet lacks strong driving factors.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England has a steady policy stance, while the Qatari Central Bank maintains slightly higher interest rates to support its currency.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which could support the QAR given its tie to the US dollar and the economy's reliance on energy exports.
• One macro factor: Mixed economic indicators from the UK, such as a recent rise in retail sales alongside growing inflation, create uncertainty for the GBP outlook.
Range:
Expect the GBP/QAR to hold within its recent trading range, with potential to test new lows or highs depending on economic updates.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A hawkish tone from the Bank of England could strengthen the GBP.
• Downside risk: Political instability in the UK could lead to further weakness in Sterling.