GBP/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate remains above its recent average and lacks a clear driver for further movement.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance on potential rate cuts contrasts with Qatar's stable economic outlook, driven by solid growth projections for 2026.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are above average, supporting the Qatari Riyal's stability, but risks remain due to global economic fluctuations affecting both currencies.
- One macro factor: The UK's economic growth is projected to slow, partially impacted by tariffs from the US, which could limit the strength of the British Pound.
Range: GBP/QAR is expected to hold within its recent 3-month range, as both currencies face mixed signals affecting their respective positions.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant rebound in the UK’s economic indicators could support the pound.
- Downside risk: Further developments in US trade policies could negatively impact the GBP as fears of a recession persist.