GBP/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's dovish stance contrasts with Qatar's recent interest rate hike, which supports the QAR.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are around 90-day highs, which typically supports the QAR due to its peg to the USD.
• One macro factor: The UK's upcoming GDP figures may cause sharp fluctuations if results deviate from expectations.
Range:
The GBP/QAR is expected to hold within its recent 3-month range as uncertainty limits movement.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising improvement in UK GDP could bolster the GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued weakness in UK economic data may further weaken the GBP.