GBP/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average and lacks a clear driving force.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England’s recent dovish policy contrasts with the Qatar Central Bank's previous interest rate hike, contributing to a weaker GBP against a stable QAR.
• Risk/commodities: Recent oil trends show volatility with prices above average, which supports the QAR indirectly, given its peg to the US dollar.
• One macro factor: Mixed UK economic indicators, including a rise in retail sales but ongoing political uncertainty, create a cautious outlook for the GBP.
Range:
Expect the GBP/QAR to hold within its recent range, drifting around current levels without significant moves.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising uptick in upcoming UK GDP figures could strengthen the GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued pressure from political uncertainty in the UK may weaken Sterling further.
