GBP/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance contrasts with Qatar's stable financial position, which is supported by increased international reserves.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at a 90-day high, which generally supports the Qatari Riyal, given its dependence on oil revenue.
- One macro factor: Recent UK retail sales and PMI figures have surpassed expectations, bolstering the British Pound's performance.
Range: GBP/QAR is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range, reflecting a lack of strong directional signals.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected UK economic data could boost the Pound further.
- Downside risk: Increased political uncertainty in the UK ahead of elections may create downward pressure on GBP.