GBP/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is just above its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is cautious on rate cuts while the Qatar Central Bank is maintaining stable policies, supporting the QAR.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices trading above their average, the QAR benefits due to its link with oil revenues.
• One macro factor: Ongoing US tariffs could negatively impact the UK's exports, influencing the GBP outlook.
Range: Movement is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range as external indicators remain mixed.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise improvement in UK economic data or a swift resolution of US tariff concerns could boost the GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued economic warnings or weaker wage growth in the UK could put further pressure on the GBP.