GBP/SEK Outlook:
The GBP/SEK rate is slightly weaker but likely to move sideways, as it currently sits just below its 90-day average and within a stable range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's dovish approach suggests potential interest rate cuts, contrasting with the Riksbank's recent concerns over disinflation risks, which may keep SEK under pressure.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are fluctuating and can impact UK inflation, affecting GBP's overall strength compared to SEK.
• One macro factor: Sweden's economic growth is projected to improve significantly this year, which may bolster the SEK against the GBP.
Range:
GBP/SEK is expected to drift within the established 3-month range, showing little inclination to break new ground.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising positive economic data release from the UK could strengthen the GBP.
• Downside risk: An aggressive rate cut from the Riksbank could lead to a more significant decline in the SEK.