The GBP to SEK exchange rate is currently bearish.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, where the Bank of England is expected to cut rates as UK inflation slows, contrasting with Sweden’s stable rates. Ongoing fiscal concerns in the UK further dampen GBP's outlook. Meanwhile, the Swedish economy is projected to grow more robustly, with inflation significantly lower, creating a favorable environment for the SEK.
Over the near term, the GBP/SEK pair is likely to trade within a stable range reflecting current price levels. Recent trading has indicated GBP/SEK is at 90-day lows, about 1.1% below its recent average and within a tight range of 12.34 to 12.70.
Upside risks for GBP include unexpected economic resilience or an abrupt shift in Bank of England policy. Conversely, downside risks arise from further fiscal troubles in the UK or stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in Sweden, which could enhance the SEK’s appeal.