GBP/SEK Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and within its trading range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance on potential rate cuts contrasts with the Riksbank's decision to maintain its policy rate, which supports the SEK.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices remaining below their average, both currencies are impacted, but the SEK may benefit from Sweden's stable economic conditions.
• One macro factor: Ongoing US tariffs are raising concerns about the UK’s economic growth, negatively influencing the GBP.
Range: GBP/SEK is expected to hold steady within the recent 3-month range, struggling to break significantly higher or lower.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive shift in UK employment data could boost the GBP.
• Downside risk: Intensified trade tensions leading to deeper UK economic concerns could weaken the GBP further.