The GBP to THB exchange rate displays a bearish bias in the near term.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with the Bank of England expected to cut rates due to lower inflation forecasts and slowing growth. In contrast, the Thai Baht could benefit from anticipated gains supported by a weaker US dollar and strong capital inflows, as the Fiscal Policy Office projects a strengthening baht. Additionally, sluggish economic growth in both the UK and Thailand may influence this currency pair, particularly with concern over Thailand's exports and tourism.
Expect the GBP to THB trading range to remain stable but within a limited band. Recent data shows the pair trading just below its three-month average, indicating a potential for consolidation around current levels.
An upside risk for GBP could arise if UK retail sales rebound strongly, lifting confidence. Conversely, if Thailand's economy unexpectedly accelerates or global oil prices rise, it might exert downward pressure on the GBP against the THB, highlighting the complexities ahead.