The forecast for the GBP to THB exchange rate remains cautious as the British pound (GBP) continues to be impacted by negative sentiment surrounding the UK’s economic outlook. Analysts predict a mere 1% growth for the UK economy in 2026, driven by rising unemployment and weakened consumer sentiment. This has resulted in the pound trading near 14-day lows at approximately 42.31 THB, which is about 1.6% below its three-month average of 43.04 THB. The currency has been relatively stable in a 4.2% range from 42.26 to 44.04 THB.
Investor sentiment is further strained ahead of the upcoming UK budget meeting on November 26, where concerns over possible tax hikes and interest rate cuts are prominent. As a result, the pound is experiencing bearish outlooks, with speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) may reduce interest rates soon, exacerbating depreciation against both the US dollar and the euro in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the Thai baht (THB) faces its own strengths and challenges. The government and Bank of Thailand (BoT) have taken measures to manage the baht's appreciation, which hit its highest levels in four years. This includes intervention to mitigate the impacts on export and tourism sectors, as the strong baht makes Thai goods less competitive internationally.
Moreover, fluctuations in oil prices may indirectly affect the THB. Currently, oil is trading at 62.45 USD, which is 3.6% below its three-month average. Given Thailand's significant export reliance on oil, any movement in oil prices could have further implications on exchange rates.
Overall, the forecast for the GBP-THB pair indicates a challenging environment for the pound, driven by economic concerns and tensions around UK fiscal policy, while the baht's stability remains precarious amid market interventions and global economic conditions. It may be prudent for those engaged in international transactions to monitor these developments closely as market conditions evolve.
