The current market bias for GBP to THB is range-bound, reflecting limited movements in recent weeks. Key drivers include:
- The Bank of England has signaled it may cut interest rates more cautiously, which could weigh on the GBP’s strength. The disparity between the BoE and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) outlook may influence the exchange rate as the BoT anticipates stronger capital inflows and a stable currency.
- Economic growth in the UK is projected to slow, with forecasts below 2%, which adds pressure to the pound compared to the Thai baht.
- The Thai economy is facing challenges, but a robust current account surplus is expected to support the baht.
The near-term trading range for GBP to THB appears to be relatively stable. Upside risks could arise if the UK retail sales data indicates stronger-than-expected consumer activity. Conversely, a substantial decline in oil prices could negatively affect THB, disrupting its stability against GBP.