GBP/THB Outlook: The outlook for GBP/THB is likely to increase, as the rate is above its recent average and near recent highs, supported by strong oil prices.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England is maintaining a cautious approach with potential rate cuts, while the Bank of Thailand recently reduced rates to stimulate growth, favoring the GBP.
- Risk/commodities: As oil prices continue to rise, the Thai Baht could be pressured, given its sensitivity to fluctuations in commodity prices.
- One macro factor: Thailand's economic growth is projected to be below potential, which could weaken the Baht's overall position against stronger currencies like the GBP.
Range: GBP/THB is expected to hold its current level, staying within recent highs, but may drift in response to any shifts in oil prices.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surprise announcement regarding a delay in rate cuts from the Bank of England could bolster the GBP.
- Downside risk: Any significant decline in oil prices may weaken the GBP against the baht.