GBP/THB Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average and near the mid-range of its three-month path.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious approach on rate cuts contrasts with the Bank of Thailand's recent interest rate reduction, which may favor the baht in the short term.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently elevated, with fluctuations above their average; higher oil costs can strengthen the Thai Baht as it impacts trade balances.
• One macro factor: UK economic growth is projected to slow, influenced by potential new US tariffs that could dampen GDP and exports.
Range: GBP/THB is likely to drift within its recent range, without significant movement toward extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected UK economic data could bolster the pound.
• Downside risk: Renewed trade tensions or negative developments regarding US tariffs could pressure the pound further.