GBP/THB Outlook: Bullish, as the rate is trading significantly above its recent average and near recent highs, driven by positive UK manufacturing data.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is maintaining its current interest rates while the Bank of Thailand is tightening regulations, creating a supportive environment for the pound against the baht.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices above average, any volatility could impact the baht, which is sensitive to global commodity trends.
• One macro factor: The persistence of gold prices at record highs is strengthening the baht, adding pressure to the GBP/THB dynamic.
Range: Expect GBP/THB to test upper extremes within its recent range, influenced by strong UK manufacturing figures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising announcement from the Bank of England could further support the pound.
• Downside risk: A decline in manufacturing growth or unexpected economic data could pressure the GBP downwards.