Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, GBP/THB sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE policy is higher than BOT after December's cut, keeping the stance for GBP steadier versus THB, and the gap could support limited firmness if UK data improves.
- Risk/commodities: Oil remains above its long-term average and shows volatility, which tends to amplify risk swings that influence EM pairs like GBP/THB, especially when markets reposition risk.
- Macro factor: BOT expects full-year growth around 1.6% in 2026, implying limited domestic impulse and greater reliance on external demand.
Range: GBP/THB is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range, with a tendency to test the lower boundary.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger UK data or a slower pace of BoE rate cuts could push GBP/THB higher.
- Downside risk: further BOT easing or a sharper USD rally could push GBP/THB toward the lower end.