The current market bias for the GBP/ZAR exchange rate is range-bound. The key drivers include a widening interest rate differential, as the Bank of England is expected to cut rates to 3.25% amid slower inflation, while the South African Reserve Bank has eased rates to 6.75% and may continue this trend. Additionally, South Africa's economic growth forecast is improving at 1.4%, supported by better electricity supply and infrastructure.
In the near term, the expected trading range is likely to stay stable with possible fluctuations around current levels. Potential upside risks include a sudden increase in oil prices, which could strengthen the ZAR due to its impact on South Africa's trade balance. On the downside, a significant deterioration in UK economic data could lead to further GBP weakness, particularly if anticipated rate cuts by the BoE occur sooner than expected.