The GBP to ZAR exchange rate exhibits a range-bound bias. Key drivers influencing this situation include the interest rate policies of the Bank of England (BoE) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The BoE's cautious signals on future rate cuts suggest that GBP may remain relatively strong, while the SARB has recently reduced interest rates, potentially easing support for the ZAR. Additionally, the economic growth forecasts for both countries present a mixed picture, with the UK facing slowing growth expectations, while South Africa anticipates moderate improvement driven by better logistics and electricity supply.
Over the next 1–3 months, the GBP/ZAR pair is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting recent activity near 22.20, which is below its typical 3-month average. Upside risks include a rebound in UK retail sales that could further bolster GBP. Conversely, a prolonged decline in oil prices could negatively impact ZAR, which is sensitive to changes in commodity prices.