The GBP to ZAR exchange rate appears on a bearish trend, trading at 22.11, which is 2.4% lower than its 3-month average of 22.66.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with the Bank of England expected to cut rates to 3.25% in mid-2026, while the South African Reserve Bank has recently eased rates to 6.75%. Additionally, the UK faces concerns over fiscal policy as growth slows, projecting only 1.2% in 2026, which may further pressure the pound. On the other hand, South Africa's economic outlook shows slight improvement, anticipating a growth of 1.4% supported by better electricity supply.
In the near term, the GBP/ZAR is expected to remain within a stable range, reflecting the current market dynamics. An upside risk could arise from a significant rebound in UK economic data, while a downside risk may come from stronger-than-expected USD performance or ongoing fiscal concerns affecting GBP. Market volatility in oil prices, which have recently reached highs near $63, could also impact the ZAR.