Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as GBP/ZAR sits below its ninety-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: BoE remains restrictive with gradual easing expected, while SARB has started cutting, narrowing the rate gap in favour of the rand and encouraging carry-like flows back into rand-denominated assets.
• Risk/commodities: Oil trades above its average and remains volatile, a pattern that can support the rand when global demand holds and adds UK inflation risk, potentially widening UK import costs.
• Macro factor: SA inflation easing toward target and the SARB’s easing path underpin the rand, with domestic growth showing resilience and policy credibility supporting steadier rand fundamentals.
Range: GBP/ZAR is likely to drift within the recent three-month band, with a test toward the lower edge possible.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger UK data or a slower pace of SARB easing.
• Downside risk: further oil strength or renewed risk-off trading weighing on the rand.