The current market bias for GBP to ZAR is bearish, with the potential for further declines. Key factors influencing the pound include the Bank of England’s recent interest rate cuts, which forecast a slower pace of future reductions. Additionally, UK growth is expected to decelerate, easing inflation pressures. The South African Rand benefits from a supportive growth outlook of 1.4% in 2026 and a new inflation target aiming for 3%. Recent monetary easing by the South African Reserve Bank contributes to a more favorable environment for the ZAR.
Over the next 1–3 months, the GBP/ZAR exchange rate is expected to trade within a stable range, likely maintaining a slight downward trend. An upside risk includes stronger-than-expected data from the UK, while a downside risk could come from a deterioration in global market sentiment, influenced by oil price volatility, which has recently seen a significant decline. With oil prices currently lower than their average, ZAR could experience further pressure if conditions worsen.
