Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as GBP/ZAR trades below its 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE policy path points to further easing this year, while SARB has shifted to a more accommodative stance earlier, keeping SA yields relatively more attractive for investors.
- Risk/commodities: Oil is near 90-day highs, boosting risk appetite and supporting the rand against the pound.
- Macro factor: UK growth looks set to be softer in 2026, limiting upside for Sterling and reinforcing a cautious stance on GBP.
Range: Likely to drift within the recent range, with a tendency to test the lower end if risk appetite turns fragile amid mixed data.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Strong UK data or a less aggressive easing outlook for the BoE could lift GBP.
- Downside risk: Oil extends gains or global risk-off flow strengthens, pushing GBP down further.