The current market bias for the GBP to ZAR exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- The Bank of England (BoE) plans to ease interest rates as inflation decreases, making the GBP less attractive compared to the ZAR.
- Economic growth in South Africa is projected to improve in 2026, helping strengthen the ZAR, while UK growth slows.
- The South African Reserve Bank has recently decreased its repo rate, which could support the ZAR against the GBP.
In the near term, the exchange rate is expected to trade within a stable range.
Upside risks for the GBP include strong performance in UK manufacturing data that could support the currency. A downside risk is further monetary easing by the BoE due to fiscal pressures, which could push the GBP down.
Currently, GBP to ZAR is at 90-day lows near 22.18, 2.3% below the three-month average, highlighting the GBP’s weakness against the ZAR amid these broader economic shifts.