The current market bias for GBP to ZAR is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- The anticipated easing of interest rates by the Bank of England due to slowing inflation and growth, which is expected to weaken the GBP. Conversely, the South African Reserve Bank’s recent rate cuts may position the ZAR favorably.
- The UK faces fiscal concerns from policy reversals, potentially leading to further pressure on the GBP. In contrast, South Africa's improved economic growth outlook for 2026 could support the ZAR.
- Oil prices, which recently hit 14-day lows, could impact ZAR, as fluctuations in oil prices affect South Africa's economy.
The expected trading range for the GBP/ZAR rate is likely to remain stable but slightly below recent averages.
An upside risk could arise from stronger-than-expected UK economic performance or signals of prolonged dollar weakness. A downside risk includes worsening fiscal conditions in the UK or unexpected increases in oil prices, which could negatively impact the ZAR.