The current market bias for GBP/ZAR is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- The Bank of England (BoE) plans to cut interest rates to 3.25% by mid-2026, while the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) recently lowered its repo rate to 6.75%, enhancing the interest rate differential in favor of the ZAR.
- The UK faces economic challenges with slow growth projected at 1.2% and ongoing inflation concerns, while South Africa anticipates slightly improved growth due to better electricity supply.
- Recent oil price trends show volatility, affecting ZAR performance, with oil prices currently lower than their three-month average, which can strain South Africa’s economy.
The expected trading range for GBP/ZAR is likely to remain under pressure, with limited fluctuations. Upside risks could arise if the UK retail sales figures show significant growth, while downside risks may increase if global oil prices fall further, impacting the ZAR's strength.