The current market bias for the HKD to CNY exchange rate is bearish. Key drivers include a stable interest rate outlook from Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority while speculation around potential easing by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lingers. Additionally, recent data indicates China’s economy is growing stronger than expected, which could support the CNY.
Expect the HKD to CNY rate to trade within a narrow range, reflecting its current position at 90-day lows, with potential fluctuations limited by recent stability.
Upside risks could emerge from stronger-than-anticipated economic recovery signs in China, boosting confidence in the CNY. Conversely, any significant rate cuts from the PBOC could lead to further bearish pressure on the HKD against the CNY, especially if coupled with unfavorable global sentiment.