Recent forecasts indicate a challenging environment for the exchange rate between the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the Pakistani Rupee (PKR), reflecting various economic and geopolitical developments. At present, the HKD to PKR exchange rate is trading near 90-day lows at approximately 36.02, slightly below the three-month average of 36.28, with fluctuations remaining within a narrow range of about 1.4%.
For the HKD, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has made significant adjustments to its monetary policies. The recent reduction of the base interest rate by 25 basis points, aligned with U.S. Federal Reserve moves, aims to stimulate economic activity. A series of interventions in the currency market, involving HKMA purchases to support the HKD, reflect ongoing challenges in maintaining the currency's peg within the established range against the USD. Analysts suggest these interventions are necessary due to pressure from capital inflows and interest rate differentials.
Conversely, the PKR faces substantial downward pressure, mainly stemming from geopolitical tensions leading to a 12% depreciation against the USD since January 2025. Experts predict this trend may lead the PKR to reach 100 PKR/USD by the year's end unless stabilizing measures take effect. The State Bank of Pakistan's intervention—having purchased $9 billion from the interbank market—has created artificial demand to support the currency, although this approach may not provide lasting strength. Additionally, increased interest rates, driven by ongoing IMF reforms, complicate the economic landscape for the PKR.
Analysts observe that while the HKD is supported by central bank actions, the PKR remains vulnerable due to external pressures and local economic difficulties. The interplay between these currencies is critical for individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions, as fluctuations in the HKD/PKR exchange rate can significantly impact costs and pricing strategies. Keeping abreast of such developments can help businesses plan more effectively for future transactions.
