MXN/USD Outlook: Bullish, as the rate is trading significantly above its recent average and near recent highs, supported by the Bank of Mexico's pause on rate cuts.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Mexico's benchmark interest rate remains higher than the Federal Reserve's expected cuts, supporting the Peso.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, benefiting the MXN due to its oil-exporting status.
• Trade policy changes: Recent tariffs imposed by Mexico on imports from non-FTA countries could stimulate domestic production and strengthen the Peso.
Range: The pair is likely to hold at elevated levels within its recent range, with less volatility expected.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation report could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting the USD.
• Downside risk: Any significant deterioration in Mexico's economic forecasts could prompt a weaker Peso against the USD.