Bias: The NOK/USD outlook is range-bound as the exchange rate is near the 90-day average and in the middle of the recent 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Norges Bank has kept interest rates steady at 4.5%, offering a competitive yield compared to the US Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which could support the NOK since Norway is a major oil exporter.
• One macro factor: The US unemployment rate fell unexpectedly, boosting demand for the USD as it has implications for Federal Reserve policy.
Range: The NOK/USD is likely to hold within its recent trading range, without testing the extremes in the short term.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected US employment report could bolster the USD further.
• Downside risk: A drop in oil prices or a dovish tone from Norges Bank could weaken the NOK.