The market bias for NOK against USD is currently bearish.
The interest rate differential has narrowed, with Norges Bank recently holding its rate steady at 4.0% while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, which may pressure the USD further. Risk sentiment is influenced by declining oil prices, now at 7-day lows, which has added to the krone’s weakness due to Norway's reliance on energy exports. Additionally, forecasts anticipate three rate cuts by the Fed by mid-2026, indicating expected dollar softness.
The NOK/USD exchange rate is likely to trade within a stable range, slightly above recent averages, as it has fluctuated within a 3.4% band over the past three months.
Upside risk includes unexpected oil price recoveries, potentially boosting the krone. Conversely, a faster-than-expected decline in U.S. interest rates could lead to further weakness in the USD, influencing the exchange rate negatively for NOK.