NOK/USD Outlook: The outlook for NOK/USD is bullish, as the rate is currently above its recent average and near recent highs, supported by a rising oil price.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Norges Bank is taking a cautious approach to rates while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates further, which could weaken the USD.
• Risk/commodities: The recent surge in oil prices has benefitted the Norwegian Krone, as Norway is a significant oil exporter, reinforcing its strength against the USD.
• One macro factor: Recent geopolitical tensions involving the US have undermined the USD's stability, increasing market uncertainty.
Range: NOK/USD is likely to hold at elevated levels, with potential for further upward movement as oil prices remain strong.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected increase in oil prices could strengthen NOK further.
• Downside risk: Additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a sharper decline in USD value.