The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has experienced fluctuations recently, largely influenced by domestic economic data and international investor sentiment. Following a disappointing reading on domestic card spending, the NZD initially weakened but showed resilience amid a more favorable risk appetite. Analysts anticipate that positive manufacturing PMI figures could bolster the NZD further in the near term.
Despite this potential recovery, recent economic indicators raise concerns about the NZD's outlook. The unemployment rate surged to 5.3% in Q3 2025, marking the highest level since 2016, which reflects ongoing challenges in the labor market. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a surprising 50 basis point rate cut to 2.5% in October, a move highlighting apprehension regarding economic growth. While inflation remains on target at 3%, driven by rising costs in essential sectors, economic contraction of 0.9% in Q2 2025 casts a shadow over the NZD’s momentum.
Conversely, the Swiss franc (CHF) remains impacted by external economic pressures. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its zero interest rate policy amid concerns over the economic implications of new U.S. tariffs, particularly those affecting key export sectors such as machinery and watchmaking. The SNB's aggressive foreign currency purchases signal an attempt to mitigate the impact of a strengthened CHF. Although recent inflation figures indicate a slight dip to 0.1%, the broader economic context remains tenuous, especially in light of tariffs imposed earlier this year that have significantly strained Switzerland's export-driven economy.
Currently, the NZD to CHF exchange rate sits at 0.4515, which is 2.7% below the three-month average of 0.4638. The exchange rate has remained relatively stable within a 6.6% range from 0.4484 to 0.4782. Experts believe that developments in both the domestic economic landscape in New Zealand and external factors affecting Switzerland will play crucial roles in directing the future trajectory of the NZD/CHF exchange rate. As such, it may be prudent for individuals and businesses engaging in international transactions to monitor these factors closely moving forward.
