The exchange rate forecast for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the Swiss franc (CHF) has recently been influenced by several economic factors affecting both currencies. Analysts note that the NZD is under pressure due to recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which reduced the policy rate to a three-year low of 3.00% in August 2025. This easing of monetary policy, combined with anticipated further rate cuts, reflects concerns over domestic economic growth and has resulted in downward pressure on the NZD.
Additionally, the escalation of U.S. tariffs on New Zealand exports to 15% has heightened worries about the impact on New Zealand's export-driven economy, further straining the NZD. Recent data indicating a potential moderation in manufacturing growth may also limit the NZD's capacity to regain strength.
In contrast, the Swiss franc (CHF) has faced its challenges, particularly from a significant 39% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Swiss exports, which led to a notable decline in Q2 exports. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported substantial losses due to the adverse effects of a weakening U.S. dollar on its investments, and it has cut interest rates to zero to combat low inflation and a strong franc. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also downgraded Switzerland's growth forecast, highlighting geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.
Recent trading data shows the NZD to CHF exchange rate at 0.4746, only 0.8% below its three-month average of 0.4786, within a stable range of 5.4% from 0.4683 to 0.4937. This suggests a relatively stable market despite the considerable external pressures faced by both currencies. Currency forecasters believe that the ongoing economic developments in both New Zealand and Switzerland will be key drivers in determining the NZD/CHF exchange rate in the upcoming months.
