NZD/CHF Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hints at potential interest rate cuts, while the Swiss National Bank remains cautious to avoid negative rates.
• Risk/commodities: High dairy prices support the New Zealand dollar, balancing out the pressures from ongoing global uncertainties.
• One macro factor: Trade relations are improving for New Zealand, with reduced tariffs on exports to the U.S., aiding its economic outlook.
Range:
Expect NZD to CHF to hold within the recent range, with potential for slight movements around the current level.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A continued rise in commodity prices could strengthen the NZD further.
• Downside risk: Renewed trade tensions could negatively impact the NZD, posing a risk of decline.