NZD/EUR Outlook: The outlook for NZD/EUR is likely to increase as the rate is currently above its recent average and near recent highs, supported by strengthening NZD amid improved market conditions.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has implemented rate cuts to stimulate growth, while the European Central Bank is maintaining a cautious monetary policy stance, creating a favorable gap for the NZD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently high, which enhances NZD value due to New Zealand's commodity export links, while the EUR bears the effects of external pressures, including the ongoing war in Ukraine.
• One macro factor: Despite a positive market mood, recent data indicating a contraction in New Zealand’s private sector may hinder sustained NZD gains.
Range: Expect the NZD/EUR to hold its current position within its recent 3-month range, with possible attempts to test the higher end.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant recovery in New Zealand’s economic data could further boost the NZD.
• Downside risk: Renewed economic challenges or geopolitical tensions affecting the Eurozone could weigh down the EUR, impacting the pair.