NZD/EUR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, given that the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is signaling potential interest rate cuts, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining rates, which supports the NZD against the EUR.
• Risk/commodities: High dairy prices are enhancing New Zealand's export income, supporting the currency despite recent volatility.
• Macro factor: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to weigh on the euro, contributing to its weakness.
Range:
Movement is expected to hold within the recent range, reflecting stability.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A shift in the RBNZ's monetary policy toward tightening could boost the NZD.
• Downside risk: Escalation of geopolitical tensions could further weaken the euro and impact the NZD negatively.