NZD/EUR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average without a strong driver for further gains.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is considering interest rate cuts, contrasting with the European Central Bank maintaining its rates amidst economic resilience.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are notably high and volatile, benefiting the NZD due to its commodity link, yet adding pressure on overall risk appetite.
• One macro factor: New Zealand's labor market concerns persist, following an unexpected rise in unemployment, which could weigh on the NZD.
Range:
Expect NZD/EUR to hold within its recent 3-month range, with possibilities for minor fluctuations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise decision by the RBNZ to hold rates could strengthen the NZD.
• Downside risk: Continued weakness in the labor market may lead to further NZD declines.