NZD/EUR Outlook:
The NZD is trading above its recent average and is near the upper end of its 3-month range, suggesting a slightly positive outlook. The New Zealand dollar benefits from improving business confidence.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains a cautious approach with no rate hikes expected soon, while the European Central Bank keeps interest rates steady.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at recent highs, which can impact both currencies but tend to favor the euro in terms of reduced import costs.
• One macro factor: The anticipated improvement in New Zealand business confidence could support the NZD.
Range:
Expect the NZD/EUR to hold within its recent range but inclined towards testing the upper limit.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant rise in New Zealand export revenues could further support the NZD.
• Downside risk: A weaker inflation report from Germany could dampen euro strength, affecting the NZD/EUR dynamics.