The exchange rate forecast for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) remains cautious amid prevailing global market dynamics. Recent updates suggest that, despite a general risk-on mood in the markets, the NZD has not benefited significantly, performing worse than the Australian dollar (AUD). Analysts note that New Zealand’s consumer confidence results could influence the NZD in the near term, yet broader risk appetite remains a crucial factor for the ‘kiwi’.
In a concerning development for the MYR, recent tariff announcements from the U.S., particularly the imposition of a 24% tariff on Malaysian imports, add a layer of uncertainty. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's assertion that Malaysia will not retaliate and instead seek engagement highlights the nation’s strategy to manage its position amid escalating trade tensions. However, the latest changes in tariff policies risk dampening economic growth and may weigh on the MYR going forward.
The NZD to MYR exchange rate is currently positioned at 2.5612, situated just above its three-month average and reflecting relatively stable trading within a range of 2.4765 to 2.6329. This stability occurs despite the volatility in the oil market, with crude prices recently at $67.77 per barrel, marking a 1.2% increase from the three-month average. Since Malaysia’s economy is sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices, this could potentially impact the MYR's performance.
The correlation between the NZD/USD and AUD/USD further complicates the forecast, as any decline in commodity demand—or added pressure from potential tariffs from a re-elected Trump administration—could adversely affect the NZD. Given this backdrop, experts recommend monitoring macroeconomic indicators and international developments closely, as they are likely to play a pivotal role in shaping future NZD/MYR exchange rate movements.