The NZD to MYR exchange rate has recently experienced some volatility, trading at 2.4284, which is 1.9% below its three-month average of 2.475. Analysts have noted that the NZD is currently facing downward pressure largely due to a significant ‘mega strike’ by public sector workers in New Zealand, affecting market sentiment and investment. The New Zealand dollar's movement is expected to be closely linked to broader market risk sentiment in the absence of any substantial domestic data.
Recent developments in New Zealand's economy further complicate the outlook. Inflation reached 3.0% in the third quarter of 2025, sitting at the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range, driven by rising costs in essential sectors. In response to economic challenges, the RBNZ has cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, with projections for inflation to ease around 2% by mid-2026. Additionally, the easing of home lending rules is seen as a move to stimulate the housing market, particularly as house prices have stabilized.
Conversely, the MYR has exhibited resilience, bolstered by strong economic fundamentals and ongoing foreign direct investment. The U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts have resulted in a weaker U.S. dollar, supporting the Malaysian ringgit's value. Malaysia's third-quarter trade surplus demonstrates robust export performance, further enhancing investor confidence in the MYR. Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% indicates a cautious yet stable monetary policy approach, considering external economic uncertainties.
In terms of oil prices, which can significantly influence the MYR, the recent Brent Crude OIL/USD price has reached 14-day highs near 65.94, though it remains slightly below the three-month average. The volatility observed in oil prices, which have shifted in a 20.4% range recently, adds another layer of complexity to the MYR's performance.
Overall, given the current economic conditions and trends, analysts suggest that the NZD may continue to struggle against the MYR, particularly if market sentiment remains cautious. Businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions should consider these factors when planning exchanges, as the outlook suggests potential continued depreciation for the NZD in the near term.
