NZD/MYR Outlook:
The NZD/MYR exchange rate is currently below its recent average and near the lower end of its 3-month range, indicating a bearish outlook. The potential for improved business confidence in New Zealand may provide some support, but it's not strong enough to drive an upward trend.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is maintaining a low interest rate which contrasts with Malaysia's higher rate, supporting the MYR.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices may benefit the MYR by boosting Malaysia’s economic outlook, negatively affecting NZD due to New Zealand's exposure to commodity price fluctuations.
• One macro factor: New Zealand's dairy prices have declined significantly, impacting export revenues and further pressuring the NZD.
Range:
The NZD/MYR is likely to test its recent lows, given its current position and weak fundamentals.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected increase in global dairy prices could improve the NZD.
• Downside risk: Further declines in New Zealand business confidence could exacerbate NZD depreciation.