Recent developments indicate a complex outlook for the NZD/VND exchange rate. After a surprising 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in October, analysts suggest a potential end to the easing cycle, which may support the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the short term. Despite this, concerns have risen due to a rising unemployment rate of 5.3% in Q3 2025 and an economic contraction of 0.9% in Q2 2025, which may weigh on the NZD. Retail sales data, showing a marginal growth increase from 0.5% to 0.6%, offers some optimism, yet diminished business confidence could temper any significant gains.
On the other hand, the Vietnamese Đồng (VND) faces pressures as experts forecast a depreciation of about 3% against the US dollar in 2025. This is compounded by factors such as the State Bank of Vietnam's intervention efforts, where it recently sold $1.5 billion to stabilize the currency amid exchange rate volatility. The US Federal Reserve's rate cuts have provided some breathing room for the VND, but ongoing trade tensions, particularly following a significant tariff imposed by the US on Vietnamese goods, continue to challenge the VND's stability.
Currently, the NZD/VND exchange rate stands at 15,115, which is approximately 0.6% below its three-month average of 15,210. The NZD has traded within a relatively stable range of 14,744 to 15,799. With the mixed signals from both economies, market participants should remain vigilant and consider both the short-term economic indicators and broader geopolitical developments when planning international transactions involving NZD and VND.
