Recent forecasts and market updates indicate a challenging outlook for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the Vietnamese đồng (VND). Analysts observe a significant depreciation of the NZD, which has faced downward pressure due to declining market risk appetite. Despite a notable improvement in domestic business confidence, this positive sentiment appears to have been overshadowed by broader market dynamics.
Recent developments in New Zealand's economy include a rise in annual inflation to 3.0% in Q3 2025, reaching the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) target range. This inflationary pressure, coupled with the RBNZ’s decision to cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, suggests a weakening monetary environment, as the central bank anticipates inflation to moderate to around 2% by mid-2026. Furthermore, the easing of mortgage lending rules planned for December may stimulate economic activity but is unlikely to provide immediate support for the NZD.
On the Vietnamese side, the VND has depreciated significantly against major currencies, with forecasts suggesting a further decline of about 3% against the US dollar in 2025. This depreciation impacts trade dynamics, particularly following the imposition of tariffs on Vietnamese exports by the United States. The Vietnamese government may consider currency depreciation as a strategic response to maintain export competitiveness.
Current market data reflects NZD to VND exchange rates at 90-day lows near 15,039, approximately 2.3% below the three-month average of 15,398. This sustained lower trading range suggests that the NZD may face continued challenges in gaining strength against the VND as it fluctuates within a relatively stable range of 5.1% from 15,039 to 15,799.
Overall, the outlook for the NZD/VND exchange rate appears cautious. Analysts recommend that individuals and businesses stay informed of key economic indicators and monetary policy changes in both countries, as these factors will significantly influence future currency valuations and international transaction costs.
