NZD/ZAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand plans potential interest rate cuts, contrasting with the South African Reserve Bank's commitment to high rates to control inflation.
• Risk/commodities: Recent strong demand for gold and other commodities has supported the rand's strength, providing competition for the New Zealand dollar.
• One macro factor: New Zealand's export boost from high dairy prices remains important, providing support for the NZD despite risks from global trade tensions.
Range:
Movement is expected to test the recent range as both currencies are influenced by various global factors.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A shift in global risk appetite towards commodities could favor the NZD.
• Downside risk: Further increases in global trade tensions could pressure the NZD against the stronger rand.