NZD/ZAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent policy easing contrasts with the South African Reserve Bank's accommodative stance, putting pressure on the NZD.
• Risk/commodities: Current oil prices are volatile and above average, supporting the strength of the ZAR due to its ties to commodity exports.
• One macro factor: New Zealand’s private sector contraction hints at economic challenges, which may weigh on the NZD moving forward.
Range: Expect NZD/ZAR to drift within the recent range, staying below the average.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected economic data from New Zealand could boost the NZD.
• Downside risk: Further declines in private sector performance may lead to increased selling pressure on the NZD.