Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the NZD is currently below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent rate cuts are weakening the NZD compared to the South African Reserve Bank's shift towards a more accommodative policy.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices above average, the South African Rand benefits from the increased competitiveness of its commodity exports.
• One macro factor: U.S. tariffs on New Zealand goods are raising concerns over the NZD's potential impact on export revenues and inflation.
Range: The NZD/ZAR is expected to drift within the recent 3-month range, with potential tests of the lower levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected rebound in global risk appetite could boost the NZD against the ZAR.
• Downside risk: Continued weak trade data from New Zealand may further pressure the NZD downward.