The exchange rate forecast for the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) against the US Dollar (USD) reflects a complex interplay of economic and geopolitical factors. Recently, the USD has experienced fluctuations influenced by a risk-positive market sentiment and the absence of significant US economic data, which has limited its recovery from previous losses. Analysts note that the safe-haven appeal of the USD is currently dampened, contributing to a softer dollar despite a recent drop in jobless claims.
On the other hand, the PKR has been under considerable pressure due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which have triggered a significant 12% depreciation against the USD since January 2025. Market predictions indicate that the PKR may further decline towards 100 PKR/USD by the end of the year, as ongoing challenges such as reduced remittances, investor flight, and trade deficits weigh heavily on its value. Yet, the recent surge in remittances—up by 26.6% to a total of $38.3 billion in the fiscal year 2024–25—has provided some support to Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves and the PKR.
Market sentiment has also been cautiously improved by a staff-level agreement between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), leading to a slight appreciation of the PKR in recent weeks. Additionally, the State Bank of Pakistan has made significant interventions in the interbank market to bolster the rupee, purchasing $9 billion to create artificial demand, even as these measures conflict with prevailing market fundamentals.
In contrast, the USD's valuation may be influenced by upcoming inflation data and evolving US-China trade relations. The anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is critical, as analysts predict an increase in core prices that could necessitate adjustments in Federal Reserve policy going forward.
Currently, the PKR to USD exchange rate is noted at 0.003550, slightly above its three-month average and maintaining a stable range from 0.003520 to 0.003565. Observers suggest that the evolving political and economic landscapes in both countries are likely to create further volatility in this exchange rate, making it important for individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions to stay informed about these developments.
