The current PLN to EUR exchange rate is experiencing some pressure, recently hovering near 7-day lows at approximately 0.2346, consistent with its 3-month average. Analysts note that the exchange rate has operated within a stable range of 0.9%, from 0.2335 to 0.2356, reflecting limited volatility in the short term.
Recent trends in the euro indicate that it is facing headwinds due to declining German exports, which fell for a second consecutive month in August. This development undermines any potential positive sentiment regarding the euro fueled by the upcoming appointment of a new French Prime Minister. If this political change is perceived favorably, it could lend some support to the euro, possibly facilitating a stronger performance in the near term.
The Polish zloty has been influenced by significant domestic developments, including interest rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) amid declining inflation. Additionally, the NBP's reported losses, exacerbated by a strengthened zloty, have attracted attention from investors. UBS's recent forecast adjustment suggests a tempered outlook for the zloty due to ongoing trade frictions and political challenges, with projections indicating a flattened EUR/PLN forecast profile at approximately 4.25 through mid-2026.
External factors further impact the euro's value, particularly reflective of its ongoing relationship with oil prices. Current oil prices are 7.2% below their 3-month average, despite exhibiting high volatility within a 17.1% range recently. Such fluctuations in oil prices can indirectly affect the euro, given the energy crisis stemming from geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics.
Overall, currency forecasts indicate a cautious stance towards the PLN and EUR pair. Market participants are advised to stay attuned to economic data releases and political developments within the Eurozone, as these factors will be critical in shaping the exchange rate's trajectory in the coming weeks.
