PLN/EUR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate sits just above its recent average and is near the mid-range of its three-month movement.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland's hawkish stance on interest rates contrasts with the European Central Bank's neutral approach, supporting the zloty against the Euro.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which affects inflation and economic stability in the Eurozone, potentially influencing the value of the euro.
- One macro factor: Poland's projected economic growth remains strong, aided by EU funds, which could bolster the zloty further.
Range: The PLN/EUR is likely to remain stable, possibly drifting within its recent range.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A more aggressive monetary policy from the National Bank of Poland in response to inflation could strengthen the zloty.
- Downside risk: Renewed political uncertainty in Poland could negatively impact the zloty's stability against the Euro.
