PLN/EUR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is near its recent average and influenced by mixed factors.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland is cutting interest rates to stimulate growth, while the European Central Bank maintains rates, widening the gap.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which can impact the euro's value due to potential inflationary pressures in the Eurozone.
- One macro factor: Eurozone inflation fell to 1.7%, sparking discussions on future ECB rate decisions and influencing euro strength.
Range:
Expect the PLN/EUR to hold within its recent trading range, reflecting stability despite mixed signals.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected ECB policy statement regarding inflation could boost the euro.
- Downside risk: Further interest rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland could weaken the zloty against the Euro.