PLN/GBP Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways due to the rate being near its 90-day average and mixed signals from both currencies.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland has recently cut rates to stimulate growth, contrasting with the Bank of England's steady rates amid weak economic signals.
• Risk/commodities: Falling oil prices have eased inflationary pressures in Poland, potentially supporting the zloty against the pound.
• One macro factor: Mixed UK economic updates have left GBP vulnerable, with expectations of a future rate cut weighing on its outlook.
Range:
The PLN/GBP pair is likely to hold its current level, moving within its recent range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising improvement in UK GDP data could strengthen the pound against the zloty.
• Downside risk: Continued signs of slowing economic growth or further dovish moves from the Bank of England may weaken GBP.
