PLN/GBP Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as the rate is below its recent average and within a stable range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland has maintained a hawkish monetary policy, while the Bank of England is taking a cautious approach to rate cuts, creating pressure on the pound.
• Risk/commodities: Recent volatility in oil prices is affecting costs across Europe, which has an indirect impact on both currencies.
• Economic Performance: Poland's GDP is projected to grow over 3.5% in 2026, supported by EU funds, which could bolster the zloty in the long term.
Range: PLN/GBP is expected to drift within its recent range as external factors remain stable.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in Poland’s political situation or economic performance could strengthen the zloty.
• Downside risk: Further negative developments related to US tariffs could weaken the pound and affect the PLN/GBP rate.