The PLN to GBP exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with the Bank of England likely to lower rates as inflation decreases and growth slows. In Poland, a recent rate cut by the National Bank of Poland aligns with controlled inflation and robust GDP growth, which supports the zloty. Additionally, strong investment forecasts in Poland may bolster the zloty’s position.
In the near term, the exchange rate is expected to remain stable within its recent range, continuing to trade similarly to the last three months.
An upside risk comes from stronger-than-expected retail sales data in the UK, which could boost the pound. Conversely, a slowdown in economic growth or further fiscal concerns in the UK could put downward pressure on the pound, affecting its future against the zloty.