PLN/GBP Outlook:
The PLN/GBP rate is slightly positive, trading just above its recent average and within the mid-range of its 3-month range. This positioning suggests potential for stability despite various pressures.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland is expected to maintain rates at 5.75%, which could keep the PLN competitive against the Bank of England's dovish tone.
• Risk/commodities: Political uncertainty in the UK is leading to a cautious approach towards the GBP, which may support the PLN.
• One macro factor: Poland's GDP growth of 3.5% is projected to outperform the UK's 0.9% in 2026, bolstering the PLN.
Range:
Expect the PLN/GBP to hold within its recent 3-month range, with potential to test both ends cautiously.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise improvement in UK political stability could strengthen the GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued political instability or weak economic data from Poland could pressure the PLN.