Bias: The PLN/GBP exchange rate is range-bound, given its near position to the 90-day average while trading in the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland maintains a hawkish stance due to inflation, while the Bank of England is expected to implement future rate cuts.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently trending below average, which could negatively impact the Polish economy, influencing the zloty's value.
- Economic performance: Poland's projected GDP growth can bolster the zloty, although political gridlock raises uncertainty about fiscal policy that could stabilize or destabilize the currency.
Range: The PLN/GBP pair is likely to hold within its recent range, with minor fluctuations expected as both currencies react to broader market trends.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant rise in oil prices could enhance economic conditions in Poland, supporting the zloty.
- Downside risk: If UK data shows stronger-than-expected growth, it could lead to increased GBP demand, undermining the PLN.