PLN/GBP Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driving factor.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland has cut interest rates, while the Bank of England has held rates steady, giving the GBP an edge over the PLN.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have stabilized, which has a neutral effect on both currencies, keeping any strong directional movements at bay.
• One macro factor: The Bank of England's dovish stance, with expectations of a rate cut in the coming months, creates uncertainty around the GBP’s near-term outlook.
Range: The PLN/GBP exchange rate is likely to hold within its recent range, drifting without significant volatility as both currencies are constrained by domestic issues.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A more aggressive approach from the BoE or positive political developments in the UK could support sterling.
• Downside risk: Any further rate cuts by the NBP or significant political uncertainty in Poland could pressure the zloty.
