Bias: The RUB/USD is bullish-to-range-bound, as it is above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Russia maintains a higher key interest rate compared to the US Federal Reserve, supporting the ruble against the dollar.
• Risk/commodities: The recent rise in oil prices is beneficial for the ruble, as Russia relies heavily on energy exports for revenue.
• One macro factor: The upcoming Federal Reserve policy adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts, may influence dollar strength in the near term.
Range: The RUB/USD is likely to hold steady or drift slightly within its recent 3-month range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sustained increase in oil prices could further strengthen the ruble.
• Downside risk: Any significant deterioration in geopolitical stability or negative economic forecasts for Russia may weaken the ruble.