RUB/USD Outlook:
The RUB/USD exchange rate is slightly positive, trading above its recent average and within a volatile 3-month range. A strong RUB relative to the dollar is supported by geopolitical tensions driving demand for safe-haven currencies.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Central Bank of Russia's approach to maintaining a stable ruble contrasts with the Fed's recent interest rate hikes, keeping the dollar buoyant.
• Risk/commodities: High oil prices continue to support the ruble, even as global commodities face volatility.
• One macro factor: Recent US jobless claims data showed a smaller increase than expected, reinforcing confidence in the US economy which could affect USD strength.
Range:
Expect RUB/USD to hold within its recent range, experiencing minor fluctuations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant easing of geopolitical tensions could strengthen the ruble further.
• Downside risk: A larger than expected rise in US inflation could lead to a stronger dollar.