RUB/USD Outlook:
The RUB/USD exchange rate is slightly positive but likely to move sideways as it is above its recent average yet lacks a strong driver to push it higher significantly.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Central Bank of Russia is easing its monetary policy while the Federal Reserve is maintaining its tightening stance, widening the interest rate difference.
• Risk/commodities: Recent volatility in oil prices, which impacts Russia's export income, remains a concern for the ruble's stability.
• One macro factor: Reports of stable inflation in Russia suggest that recent currency appreciation may not lead to inflationary pressures in the short term.
Range:
Expect the RUB/USD to hold steady, possibly drifting within its recent range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A decrease in geopolitical tensions could strengthen the ruble.
• Downside risk: A significant tightening of US monetary policy could lead to further USD strength.