The RUB to USD exchange rate shows a bearish bias.
The Bank of Russia is expected to cut interest rates from 17.5% to 12.0–13.0% by 2026 to control inflation. This could weaken the ruble further as inflation is projected to decrease to around 4.0% in 2026. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve anticipates three rate cuts by mid-2026, contributing to a softer USD.
In the short term, the exchange rate is likely to stay in a volatile range as recent data shows the RUB trading near 0.012430, just below the 3-month average, with movements between 0.012049 and 0.013158. Upside risks include potential global economic growth boosting demand for the ruble. A downside risk is the ASEAN's initiative to reduce reliance on the USD, which may amplify USD weakness and increase pressure on the RUB.