RUB/USD Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Russia's shift towards lowering interest rates contrasts with the expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, creating pressures on the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are forecasted to remain between $50 to $60 per barrel, supporting the ruble's performance amid fluctuating foreign exchange earnings.
• One macro factor: Investor confidence in the USD is waning due to high fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, impacting its attractiveness.
Range: The RUB/USD rate is likely to hold steady within its recent range, with minor fluctuations expected.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Strengthening oil prices or improved Russia-U.S. relations could boost the ruble.
• Downside risk: Further geopolitical tensions or significant additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could pressure the USD further.