RUB/USD Outlook:
Bullish, as the ruble is above its 90-day average and near recent highs, supported by job market strength in the U.S.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Russia's floating exchange rate approach contrasts with the Federal Reserve, which paused rate cuts, impacting the ruble's value more positively.
- Risk/commodities: Recent declines in oil prices have generally pressured the ruble, but current exporter conversions to rubles could stabilize it.
- Macro factor: Strong U.S. job creation and declining unemployment figures indicate a resilient American labor market, bolstering the dollar.
Range:
Expect RUB/USD to drift within its recent range, influenced by external pressures and domestic currency movements.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant rebound in global oil prices could enhance ruble strength and improve Russia's export revenues.
- Downside risk: New sanctions or increased volatility in the ruble due to geopolitical tensions could lead to a sharp depreciation.
