The recent outlook for the SEK to EUR exchange rate reflects a complex interplay between monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Riksbank, along with macroeconomic indicators affecting both currencies. Following the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates steady while offering an optimistic growth forecast for 2025, the euro (EUR) has strengthened. Analysts noted that risks to the Eurozone economy are now perceived as more balanced, which underpins a more favorable outlook for EUR, particularly as inflation figures from Germany are expected to have minimal negative impact.
Conversely, the Swedish krona (SEK) has faced downward pressure following the Riksbank's unexpected rate cut to 2.00% in June 2025 and the indication of potential further cuts. This has led to a bearish sentiment regarding the SEK, as reflected in BCA Research's warnings of weakening due to anticipated aggressive rate reductions aimed at counteracting falling inflation and economic slowdown. UBS has also adjusted its forecast for the EUR/SEK exchange rate upwards to 10.75, indicating a shift in financial outlook stemming from diverging monetary policies between the ECB and Riksbank.
Recent data shows that SEK to EUR is currently traded at 0.091458, which is 1.8% above its three-month average, suggesting a stable performance within a narrow range. However, the ongoing concerns regarding the Riksbank's monetary approach may challenge the SEK's stability against the euro going forward.
In addition to these currency-specific factors, broader market conditions, particularly relating to oil prices, cannot be overlooked. With oil (OIL) trading at 66.99 USD, which is 2.9% below its three-month average, this volatility may impact trade dynamics and therefore influence the currencies involved. The eurozone's energy dependency reflects the economic challenges arising from ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine, which continues to exert pressure on energy prices and, subsequently, on the euro.
Over the coming weeks, the interactions between these monetary stances, inflation trends, and external economic pressures will likely dictate the trajectory of the SEK to EUR exchange rate. Investors and businesses should remain vigilant to these developments to maximize efficiency in their international transactions.
