SEK/EUR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average yet lacks a clear driving factor.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Riksbank's stable policy rate has positioned the SEK favorably against the EUR, which faces potential easing from the ECB.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently high and volatile, putting upward pressure on the SEK due to Sweden's oil import scenarios, while the euro remains sensitive to economic performance fluctuations.
• One macro factor: Sweden's GDP growth is anticipated to accelerate this year, driven by fiscal stimulus and a recovery in domestic demand, strengthening the SEK outlook.
Range: SEK/EUR is likely to hold steady within its recent range, as current conditions do not strongly favor either currency.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant upward revision in GDP data for Sweden could boost the SEK further.
• Downside risk: If the Eurozone's GDP growth decreases unexpectedly, it may put downward pressure on the SEK against the EUR.
