The current market bias for the SGD to HKD exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential remains stable, as the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has recently maintained its policy rates, while the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is expected to keep rates steady throughout 2026.
- Economic growth forecasts in Singapore have been upgraded, showing resilience in non-oil exports and manufacturing.
- Inflation expectations in Singapore suggest core inflation will moderate soon, which may support the SGD's value.
In the near term, analysts expect the SGD to trade within a narrow range, roughly maintaining its position around current levels.
Upside risks could arise from unexpectedly strong economic data or further MAS policy easing. Conversely, a downside risk could emerge from increasing global economic uncertainties or shifts in risk sentiment impacting the HKD's value.