SGD/JPY Outlook:
The SGD/JPY exchange rate is likely to increase as it is currently trading above its recent average and near recent highs. This trend is supported by developments in both monetary policies and economic conditions.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Monetary Authority of Singapore has relaxed its policy to sustain the economy, while the Bank of Japan has recently raised interest rates to combat persistent inflation.
• Risk/commodities: The recent surge in global oil prices has pressured the Japanese Yen, as higher import costs weaken its value against the SGD.
• One macro factor: Japan's fiscal concerns due to proposed tax cuts may reduce investor confidence, further impacting the JPY's performance.
Range:
Expect the SGD/JPY to test recent extremes, with potential for fluctuations within the established range driven by economic updates.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in Singapore's trade data could strengthen the SGD further.
• Downside risk: If oil prices significantly decline, it may strengthen the JPY and adversely impact the SGD/JPY rate.