SGD/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Monetary Authority of Singapore is adopting a more accommodative policy, while the Qatar Central Bank recently increased interest rates to support the stability of the QAR.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are notably above average, which typically supports the QAR due to its link with energy exports.
• One macro factor: Singapore's economy has shown resilience with robust growth, but the US tariffs on imports from Singapore may challenge its export-dependent economy.
Range:
Expect the SGD/QAR to hold steady within its recent range as it drifts around its current position.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger economic performance in Singapore or surprise monetary tightening by MAS could boost the SGD.
• Downside risk: Further escalation in US trade tariffs could negatively affect Singapore's economy and pressure the SGD lower.
