Bias: The current exchange rate for SGD/QAR is bullish-to-range-bound as it is above the 90-day average and in the upper half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Monetary Authority of Singapore's recent shift towards a more accommodative stance contrasts with Qatar's stable currency policy, which continues to align with the US Federal Reserve’s rates.
- Risk/commodities: With oil prices above their 3-month average, larger revenues for Qatar could strengthen the QAR, especially given its reliance on the energy sector.
- Economic growth: Qatar's GDP growth forecast for 2026 supports the QAR's stability, while Singapore's GDP growth is expected to moderate, impacting the SGD.
Range: It is likely that SGD/QAR will hold within its recent range, as both currencies are showing stability.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A robust recovery in the Singapore economy or further increases in oil prices could boost the SGD against the QAR.
- Downside risk: Any significant deterioration in Singapore's economic outlook or shift in monetary policy could weaken the SGD.
