SGD/QAR Outlook: The SGD/QAR exchange rate is likely to increase, currently trading above the 90-day average and near recent highs, supported by stronger economic forecasts and external factors.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Monetary Authority of Singapore is keeping its monetary policy stable while the Qatari Riyal benefits from a strong US dollar peg.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at 90-day highs, bolstering the QAR's stability and possibly benefitting the SGD due to Singapore's close ties to commodity markets.
- One macro factor: MAS has raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, indicating potential upward pressure on the SGD.
Range: The SGD/QAR is anticipated to hold steady within its recent range, occasionally drifting towards the higher end due to supportive economic developments.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant increase in oil prices could further boost confidence in the QAR, enhancing the SGD's position.
- Downside risk: Unforeseen global trade tensions could negatively affect Singapore’s economic outlook, leading to a weaker SGD.