Recent forecasts for the SGD to THB exchange rate indicate a challenging environment for the Singapore Dollar as it hits near 90-day lows at approximately 24.56, which is about 1.5% below its 3-month average of 24.93. This depreciation is largely attributed to the easing of monetary policy by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in January 2025 to support economic growth amid lower core inflation projections. This shift has contributed to a softer SGD, as MAS's policy adjustments suggest a more cautious approach towards currency appreciation.
Economic indicators from Singapore show stronger-than-expected growth, with a 2.9% year-on-year expansion in Q3 2025. However, external pressures from U.S. trade tensions have raised concerns about potential tariffs on key exports, which could further influence the SGD’s trajectory. If MAS follows through on easing policies further, this could lead to additional weakening of the SGD against the THB.
Conversely, the Thai Baht is influenced by measures from the Bank of Thailand to curb its appreciation. The central bank is considering interventions that may include rate cuts and managing foreign exchange activities related to gold. The Baht's strength could be a double-edged sword, as it pressures Thailand's economic competitiveness, particularly in tourism and exports. Furthermore, with Thailand experiencing persistent negative inflation—down 0.49% year-on-year as of November—there is significant pressure on the economy which may prompt the Bank of Thailand to reduce interest rates to stimulate growth.
In terms of market dynamics, the SGD to THB pair has traded within a stable range of 24.56 to 25.32, yet recent economic signals suggest that it could remain under pressure in the near term. The recent oil price increase to around 63.75 from a volatile range of 60.96 to 70.13 may also have indirect effects, affecting the trade balance for Thailand and influencing the Baht's stability.
Overall, analysts predict that both currencies will remain sensitive to altering economic conditions and central bank maneuvers. Economic stability in Singapore juxtaposed with challenges faced by the Thai economy, particularly regarding export competitiveness and inflation, could lead to further fluctuations in the SGD to THB exchange rate in the coming months.
