SGD/THB Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is currently below its recent average and near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Monetary Authority of Singapore has adopted a more accommodative stance, while the Bank of Thailand is tightening measures to stabilize the baht.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are above their recent average, yet significant volatility could impact the Thai economy, potentially affecting the baht.
• One macro factor: The recent US tariffs on Singaporean goods may add pressure to Singapore's export-driven economy, impacting the SGD.
Range:
The SGD/THB is expected to drift within its recent stable range as both currencies face challenges.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sudden increase in global demand for SGD could shift the exchange rate upward.
• Downside risk: Further sanctions or economic troubles for Singapore could put more pressure on the SGD.
