The recent forecasts and market updates for the Singapore Dollar (SGD) to Thai Baht (THB) exchange rate indicate a complex interplay of economic factors and central bank policies impacting both currencies. The SGD has experienced a notable decline, trading at 60-day lows around 24.64, which is 1.3% below its three-month average of 24.96. Analysts have observed that the SGD has remained relatively stable within a range of 2.9%, fluctuating between 24.61 and 25.32.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has adjusted its monetary policy, reducing the rate of appreciation for the SGD in April 2025 to support a weakening economy amid trade uncertainties. While MAS maintained its policy in October, declaring a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 2.9% year-on-year for Q3 2025 and raising the growth forecast for the year, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Analysts note that the SGD shows characteristics of a safe haven during periods of financial distress, particularly amid ongoing global trade tensions.
In contrast, the Thai Baht has faced upward pressure due to government and central bank interventions aimed at countering its recent strength, which reached a four-year high. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has taken measures to slow the baht’s appreciation, which has been detrimental to Thailand's export and tourism sectors by making goods and services less competitive. The consideration of a gold trading tax further underscores the BoT's efforts to stabilize the currency.
Additionally, fluctuations in global oil prices may impact the exchange rate. Recent data shows oil traded at 62.38 USD, which is 4.1% below its three-month average. The volatility in oil prices contributes to fluctuations in both SGD and THB, especially given that Thailand is a net oil importer.
Overall, market analysts suggest maintaining a cautious outlook on the SGD/THB exchange rate, with factors such as ongoing monetary policies, economic growth forecasts, trade conditions, and global oil prices likely to influence the trajectory of both currencies in the upcoming months.
