The current market bias for the TRY to USD exchange rate is bearish. Key drivers include the significant interest rate differential, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates further by mid-2026, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey may continue easing, targeting a lower policy rate. Additionally, Turkey's efforts to keep its inflation target may weaken the lira further amid recent price pressures.
In the near-term, the TRY to USD rate may trade within a defined range, reflecting recent activity at 90-day lows and a stable 3.3% fluctuation from its average.
Upside risks could emerge from improved global economic growth or unexpected resilience in the Turkish economy. Conversely, continued monetary easing by both the Central Bank of Turkey and the Federal Reserve could further drag down the lira's value.