The current market bias for the TRY to USD exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has signaling a potential for more monetary easing, which could lead to a weaker lira.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve's planned interest rate cuts may also contribute to a softer dollar.
- Turkey's inflation target remains high, posing risks for the lira's stability as it aims for 16% by 2026, while economic growth is expected to slow.
In the near term, the exchange rate is likely to remain within a stable range, showing limited fluctuation based on recent data.
An upside risk factors in unexpected positive economic news from Turkey that could support the lira, while a downside risk would involve renewed financial instability or external pressures impacting Turkey's current account.