TRY/USD Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, pressured by significant inflation and interest rate adjustments in Turkey.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Central Bank of Turkey's recent rate cut contrasts with expectations for potential rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, impacting relative currency strength.
• Risk/commodities: Higher oil prices could maintain pressure on the Turkish Lira by exacerbating inflationary trends within Turkey, as oil is a crucial import.
• One macro factor: Turkey's inflation is now accelerating, driven by food price increases and agricultural supply issues, complicating monetary policy.
Range: The TRY/USD is likely to drift within its recent stable range as both currencies react to upcoming economic indicators.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant positive shift in Turkey's inflation outlook or a robust demand for Turkish exports could strengthen the Lira.
• Downside risk: A resurgence of geopolitical tensions or disappointing economic data from the US could prompt further USD strength.