TRY/USD Outlook:
Bearish, with the rate currently below its 90-day average and near recent lows. The market is primarily affected by the end of the Currency Protected Deposit Scheme, allowing for greater currency fluctuation.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: High interest rates in Turkey aim to combat inflation but may not fully stabilize the lira compared to the USD's stronger economic indicators.
• Risk/commodities: With ongoing geopolitical tensions, demand for safe-haven currencies like the USD remains elevated, influencing trends against the lira.
• One macro factor: The recent strong performance in US job data continues to bolster confidence in the USD.
Range:
The TRY/USD is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range, moving between slight fluctuations, as it remains in a phase of instability.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in Turkey’s inflation outlook could strengthen the lira.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions could further boost demand for the USD, leading to more depreciation of the lira.