The exchange rate between the Turkish Lira (TRY) and the US Dollar (USD) has recently experienced volatility influenced by various macroeconomic factors. As of now, TRY to USD is hovering at 90-day lows of approximately 0.023529, which is 1.6% below the 3-month average of 0.023924. This rate has remained stable within a 3.4% range, trading between 0.023529 and 0.024331.
Recent analysts have observed that the US dollar has slipped amid a risk-positive trade environment, reducing its demand as a safe-haven currency. Despite a brief recovery during European trading hours, primarily attributed to a decline in initial jobless claims, the ongoing positive sentiment in markets has limited the dollar's strength. The absence of major American economic data on the calendar suggests that market risk appetite will continue to drive the USD’s movements.
For the Turkish Lira, key developments are placing downward pressure on its value. The Turkish central bank recently adjusted its inflation forecasts upward, proposing a new target range for 2025 between 31% and 33%, while reaffirming a 2026 target of 16%. The Governor has indicated readiness to tighten monetary policy should inflation significantly deviate from expected targets. Furthermore, a recent interest rate cut of 100 basis points to 39.5% signifies a cautious approach to easing monetary policy in light of rising inflation, which unexpectedly surged to 33.29% in September.
Political instability has further compounded these economic challenges for the TRY. Following unrest in Turkey in March 2025, the lira experienced a sharp depreciation against the USD. Such developments suggest that the TRY may continue to struggle against the backdrop of high inflation and potential volatility stemming from domestic political factors.
Overall, market analysts are cautious about both currencies. The dynamics between the TRY andUSD are heavily influenced by a combination of inflationary pressures in Turkey and fluctuating risk sentiment in global markets impacting the USD. As these factors evolve, businesses and individuals should stay alert to further developments in both currencies to manage their international transactions effectively.
