TRY to USD Forecast & Outlook
23 May 2026 • 01:05 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 0.0220 – 0.0220
- Dominant driver: ⚖️ Interest-rate differentials
- 3-month trend: 🔴 Downtrend
Currently, TRY/USD is trading near 90-day lows, holding below its 3-month average. The dominant driver from the rate differential and risk sentiment suggests a near-term bias to the downside. Risk-off conditions and the USD's strength supported by global inflation concerns and Fed outlooks are pressuring the pair. Near-term conditions may remain supported by these factors, keeping the Turkish Lira showing signs of further weakness.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to US Dollars may find conditions less favourable than recent levels, as TRY weakens.
- Travellers: exchanging for USD might see higher costs compared to previous periods, especially if the pair declines further.
- Businesses: paying USD invoices in TRY could face increased expenses if the Lira continues to weaken.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: Turkish interest rates at 45% are high but inflation remains above 28%, limiting yield attractiveness.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment and safe-haven flows support USD and pressure EM currencies like TRY.
- Global factors: US inflation data and hawkish Fed expectations continue to underpin USD strength.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A slowdown in risk-off sentiment or signs of stabilization in Turkish inflation could support TRY.
- Downside risk: Further USD strength driven by resilient US inflation or Fed hawkishness could deepen the Lira’s weakness.
Comparing FX providers and shopping around for the lowest margins may help offset less favourable exchange conditions.