Recent forecasts and updates indicate that the USD to UAH exchange rate is currently experiencing significant volatility and strategic forecasts as various economic factors unfold. The USD has seen a notable decline following a softer inflation report, suggesting a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy with further interest rate cuts anticipated by 2025. This sentiment is compounded by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and broader global dynamics surrounding the dollar’s future as a reserve currency. Analysts highlight that these factors are collectively shaping market perceptions of the dollar, which has recently been trading at near 90-day highs around 42.01 UAH, slightly above its three-month average of 41.45 UAH.
On the Ukrainian side, the hryvnia is influenced by the National Bank's decision to maintain the key policy rate at 15.5%, aiming to stabilize the foreign exchange market amid economic uncertainties. Future forecasts from Dragon Capital suggest a controlled depreciation of the hryvnia in the latter half of 2025, stemming from expected declines in inflation and changes in monetary policy. Moreover, projections indicate that the exchange rate could reach UAH 44.8 per USD by the end of 2026, reinforcing a gradual depreciation trend.
The imminent visit from the IMF Chief further emphasizes the necessity for economic support and stability in Ukraine, which may impact the hryvnia's performance against the dollar as negotiations unfold. Overall, experts suggest individuals and businesses keep a close watch on these developments, as the combination of U.S. monetary policy shifts and Ukraine’s economic landscape will significantly influence the USD to UAH exchange rate in the near future.
