USD/UAH Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its 90-day average but lacks a clear driver for significant movement.
Key drivers:
- The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates gradually, which may weaken the dollar against the hryvnia.
- Oil prices have been stable, as the market closely monitors geopolitical situations and their impact on commodity costs.
- The National Bank of Ukraine’s recent rate hike aims to stabilize inflation, supporting the hryvnia but also signaling ongoing economic risks.
Range: The USD/UAH will likely drift within the established range, with potential movements between the recent lows and highs.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A renewed trade conflict or tariffs could heighten uncertainty and weaken the dollar's appeal.
- Downside risk: Strong economic indicators from Ukraine or further international support could strengthen the hryvnia against the dollar.
