USD/UAH Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve has stabilized its interest rates, while the NBU recently intervened to support the UAH, creating mixed impacts on respective currencies.
• Risk/commodities: Volatility in oil prices could affect both currencies, especially if Ukraine's energy costs fluctuate significantly.
• One macro factor: Recent EU financial assistance has boosted the NBU's reserves, providing stability for the hryvnia amidst external pressures.
Range:
The USD/UAH rate is likely to hold within its recent range, given the current lack of catalysts for significant movement.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected US labor market data could boost the USD further.
• Downside risk: Renewed geopolitical tensions affecting Ukraine could exert pressure on the UAH, weakening its position against the USD.
