The USD to UAH exchange rate is currently in a bearish trend.
Key drivers include:
- The Federal Reserve is expected to implement additional rate cuts, which may weaken the USD significantly in the coming months.
- Improved global economic growth, alongside rising commodity prices, could lead to increased volatility for the USD.
- The Ukrainian government projects a GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026, maintaining a supportive environment for the UAH.
In the near term, the USD to UAH rate may trade within a range of 41 to 45.
An upside risk is the potential for better-than-expected economic data from the US, which could bolster the USD. A downside risk could come from further actions by the Federal Reserve, leading to accelerated USD depreciation.