USD/CHF Outlook:
The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently below its recent average and near recent lows. This suggests a bearish outlook as the US dollar faces pressure from a potential contraction in durable goods orders.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's focus on maintaining higher interest rates is not currently matching the Swiss National Bank's approach, which may consider easing due to the strong CHF.
• Risk/commodities: Ongoing global economic uncertainties strengthen demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven, impacting the USD/CHF rate as investors seek security.
• One macro factor: The recent uptick in US job growth may support the USD, but concerns over durable goods orders present a balancing factor.
Range:
The USD/CHF rate is expected to remain within its recent range, possibly drifting lower as economic data unfolds.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising rebound in US durable goods orders could bolster the USD.
• Downside risk: Continued strength of the CHF due to safe-haven demand might further pressure the USD.