USD/CHF Outlook:
The USD/CHF is slightly positive and likely to move sideways, trading near its recent average and supported by the US dollar's safe-haven status amid global tensions. The 30-day rate is close to recent highs but lacks a strong momentum driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are more aggressive compared to the Swiss National Bank's cautious approach.
• Risk/commodities: With the US dollar's climb linked to escalating Middle East conflict, investors see it as a refuge, strengthening USD demand.
• One macro factor: Positive US ISM services PMI data due could further bolster the dollar.
Range:
The USD/CHF is likely to hold within its recent range, hovering around the average with potential slight fluctuations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected US ISM services PMI could boost the USD further.
• Downside risk: De-escalation of Middle East tensions may reduce demand for the US dollar.