Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, as USD/CHF sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the last three months' range, suggesting light upside momentum with limited room to run.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The US central bank is expected to trim policy rates toward a neutral stance next year, while the SNB holds at zero, widening the gap that can lift USD vs CHF, especially if US payrolls surprise on the strong side.
Macro factor: UBS notes stronger euro area growth could ease CHF strength and influence SNB timing, potentially delaying any policy shift.
Range: the pair is likely to drift within the recent three-month corridor, with a test of the upper end if USD resilience persists and domestic risk appetite remains firm.
What could change it:
Upside risk: hawkish Fed commentary or solid US payrolls that delay easing could push USD higher.
Downside risk: soft US data or a dovish Fed tilt that signals earlier easing could weigh on USD/CHF.
