Bias: Range-bound, current is near the 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed is seen cutting toward a neutral rate in 2026, while the SNB remains at 0%, keeping USD broadly supported but the gap could narrow if US policy becomes more accommodative.
- Risk/commodities: Oil volatility drives risk appetite, and weaker appetite tends to lift demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven.
- Macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data will shape near-term USD moves, with a stronger report potentially lifting the dollar.
Range: The pair is likely to hold in the 3-month range, with a drift toward the lower end as liquidity thins and flows stay choppy.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Strong US jobs data or a firmer Fed tone could push USD higher, especially if global growth stays uneven.
- Downside risk: Softer US data or clearer dovish signals could weigh on the dollar and push USD/CHF lower.
