The recent performance of the USD to EGP exchange rate has been influenced by a combination of factors impacting both currencies. As of the last assessment, the USD stands at 48.15 EGP, which is 1.6% below its three-month average of 48.93, reflecting relatively stable trading within a range of 47.93 to 50.91.
Analysts note that concerns over Federal Reserve independence and potential quick interest rate cuts have weighed heavily on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's leadership transition, particularly the confirmation of Stephen Miran—an ally of President Trump—has sparked worries that monetary policy may be unduly influenced by political factors. It is anticipated that any rate cuts could further drive the dollar lower, potentially impacting its value against the Egyptian pound.
For the Egyptian pound, recent indicators show a moderation in inflation, which is projected to ease to 12.7% in August. Economists credit this slowdown to tightened monetary policies and significant financial support from the IMF. Ahead of the Central Bank of Egypt’s upcoming meeting, experts predict a potential interest rate cut of 100 basis points, which is aimed at stabilizing the pound while managing inflation. However, the broader economic outlook has been reassessed with downward revisions to GDP growth forecasts, largely due to expectations of weaker global performance resulting from tariff disputes, particularly with the United States.
Volatility remains a concern for the EGP, as it previously hit a historic low against the USD. Market conditions, both global and domestic, will heavily influence the pound’s performance in the coming months. As these dynamics evolve, the exchange rate between the USD and EGP will likely remain sensitive to external economic pressures and domestic policy decisions. Investors and businesses engaged in international transactions should stay alert to these developments to optimize their currency exchange strategies.
