The current market bias for the USD to EGP exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rate expectations suggest the US Federal Reserve may cut rates further by mid-2026, which could weaken the USD.
- The Egyptian economy is projected to grow, with estimates reaching 4.7% in 2026, supporting the EGP against the dollar.
- The IMF indicates a gradual depreciation path for the EGP, anticipating an average value of 54.05 per USD in 2026.
In the near term, the USD to EGP rate is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting current dynamics similar to recent trades near 47.17, slightly below the 3-month average.
An upside risk could come from stronger-than-expected US economic data that boosts the USD, while a downside risk may arise if Egyptian growth exceeds forecasts, putting more pressure on the USD's value against the EGP.