Bias: range-bound; USD/FJD sits near the 90-day average and in the middle of the 3-month range, signaling no clear tilt.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Markets pricing gradual Fed easing into 2026 while Fiji keeps policy steady, shaping USD-FJD moves.
• Macro: US labour market remains firm, implying the Fed will ease slowly; this supports a resilient USD even as rate cuts approach.
• Fiji developments: Polymer banknotes started circulating in January, and a brighter growth outlook supports domestic confidence, which could cap FJD downside pressure.
Range: USD/FJD is likely to hold in the recent range, with a slow drift around the middle as liquidity stays even and traders await new data from major economies.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: a stronger US jobs report or a firmer Fed signal could push the USD higher against the FJD.
• Downside risk: softer US data or signs of faster easing boosting risk appetite could lift the FJD and weigh on the USD.
