Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, current level sits near the 90-day average and near the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: US monetary policy is seen staying higher for longer than Fiji’s, keeping USD supported versus the FJD in the near term.
- Macro factor: Fiji’s general election later in the year could shape policy direction and investor confidence, adding a domestic driver to the pair.
Range: USD/FJD is likely to hold within the three-month band, with a gentle drift toward the upper end.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US payrolls or a hawkish tilt from Fed speakers could lift the USD.
- Downside risk: dovish Fed signals or a faster than expected improvement in Fiji's tourism sector could lift the FJD.
