Bias: Range-bound, near the ninety-day average and in the middle of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US Fed is expected to ease policy toward a neutral stance in the coming years, which could temper USD strength; Fiji's policy backdrop remains steadier.
- Domestic/fundamental: Fiji's growth forecast was revised higher and tourism events are planned, supporting the FJD as domestic demand strengthens.
- Macro factor: Markets will watch upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data to gauge Fed easing prospects, with jobs trends shaping timing.
Range: USD/FJD is likely to drift within the three-month range, occasionally testing the upper end on positive US data, but generally holding near the middle as liquidity stays supportive.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US data or a less dovish Fed stance could lift the USD, pushing USD/FJD toward the upper end.
- Downside risk: firmer Fiji growth, political stability, or a tourism rebound could support the FJD and cap USD gains.
