USD/FJD Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as it is trading below its recent average and lacks a clear driver for significant movement.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's pause on rate cuts maintains a relatively stable USD outlook compared to FJD, which may be more sensitive to local economic changes.
• Risk/commodities: Recent commodity market volatility has led to a preference for safe-haven assets like the USD, which could temporarily support its value against the FJD despite its current lower position.
• One macro factor: Fiji's forecasted economic growth of 3% in 2026, backed by a 2% increase in visitor arrivals, may help provide some support for the FJD.
Range: The USD/FJD pair is likely to hold steady within the recent range as external pressures balance out.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected JOLTs job openings report could boost USD demand.
• Downside risk: Further geopolitical tensions may lead investors to further reduce their USD exposure, weighing on its value.
